Traders assign a 95.5 percent implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the lack of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or direct escalatory moves in recent months. Beijing continues to emphasize gray-zone pressure through military exercises and economic measures while avoiding the logistical and diplomatic risks of a full cross-strait operation. U.S. arms commitments, allied naval presence, and Taiwan’s defensive preparations reinforce deterrence without triggering immediate conflict. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden South China Sea incident, leadership miscalculation, or rapid deterioration in U.S.-China talks, though none appear imminent within the current resolution window.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড$477,301 Vol.
$477,301 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
$477,301 Vol.
$477,301 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 95.5 percent implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the lack of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or direct escalatory moves in recent months. Beijing continues to emphasize gray-zone pressure through military exercises and economic measures while avoiding the logistical and diplomatic risks of a full cross-strait operation. U.S. arms commitments, allied naval presence, and Taiwan’s defensive preparations reinforce deterrence without triggering immediate conflict. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden South China Sea incident, leadership miscalculation, or rapid deterioration in U.S.-China talks, though none appear imminent within the current resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
ভলিউম
$477,301শেষ তারিখ
Sep 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 95.5 percent implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the lack of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or direct escalatory moves in recent months. Beijing continues to emphasize gray-zone pressure through military exercises and economic measures while avoiding the logistical and diplomatic risks of a full cross-strait operation. U.S. arms commitments, allied naval presence, and Taiwan’s defensive preparations reinforce deterrence without triggering immediate conflict. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden South China Sea incident, leadership miscalculation, or rapid deterioration in U.S.-China talks, though none appear imminent within the current resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ভলিউম
$477,301শেষ তারিখ
Sep 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.5 percent implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the lack of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or direct escalatory moves in recent months. Beijing continues to emphasize gray-zone pressure through military exercises and economic measures while avoiding the logistical and diplomatic risks of a full cross-strait operation. U.S. arms commitments, allied naval presence, and Taiwan’s defensive preparations reinforce deterrence without triggering immediate conflict. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden South China Sea incident, leadership miscalculation, or rapid deterioration in U.S.-China talks, though none appear imminent within the current resolution window.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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