Traders assign a 99.2% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics surges, or command adjustments required for such an operation in the narrow remaining window. U.S. intelligence assessments earlier in 2026 explicitly stated that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for unification and do not plan near-term military action. Routine gray-zone activity continues, including moderated air defense identification zone incursions, China Coast Guard patrols, and periodic live-fire drills, while Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang exercises emphasize asymmetric capabilities such as drones and reservist mobilization. Recent PLA leadership adjustments have also constrained immediate readiness. A sudden cross-strait crisis or unanticipated leadership development could still shift trajectories, though none appear imminent.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড<1% সম্ভাবনা
$1,902,232 Vol.
$1,902,232 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<1% সম্ভাবনা
$1,902,232 Vol.
$1,902,232 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.2% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics surges, or command adjustments required for such an operation in the narrow remaining window. U.S. intelligence assessments earlier in 2026 explicitly stated that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for unification and do not plan near-term military action. Routine gray-zone activity continues, including moderated air defense identification zone incursions, China Coast Guard patrols, and periodic live-fire drills, while Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang exercises emphasize asymmetric capabilities such as drones and reservist mobilization. Recent PLA leadership adjustments have also constrained immediate readiness. A sudden cross-strait crisis or unanticipated leadership development could still shift trajectories, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
ভলিউম
$1,902,232শেষ তারিখ
Sep 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.2% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics surges, or command adjustments required for such an operation in the narrow remaining window. U.S. intelligence assessments earlier in 2026 explicitly stated that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for unification and do not plan near-term military action. Routine gray-zone activity continues, including moderated air defense identification zone incursions, China Coast Guard patrols, and periodic live-fire drills, while Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang exercises emphasize asymmetric capabilities such as drones and reservist mobilization. Recent PLA leadership adjustments have also constrained immediate readiness. A sudden cross-strait crisis or unanticipated leadership development could still shift trajectories, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ভলিউম
$1,902,232শেষ তারিখ
Sep 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.2% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics surges, or command adjustments required for such an operation in the narrow remaining window. U.S. intelligence assessments earlier in 2026 explicitly stated that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for unification and do not plan near-term military action. Routine gray-zone activity continues, including moderated air defense identification zone incursions, China Coast Guard patrols, and periodic live-fire drills, while Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang exercises emphasize asymmetric capabilities such as drones and reservist mobilization. Recent PLA leadership adjustments have also constrained immediate readiness. A sudden cross-strait crisis or unanticipated leadership development could still shift trajectories, though none appear imminent.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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