China’s established pattern of infrequent public long-range ballistic missile tests, with only isolated submarine-launched or intercontinental events acknowledged over decades, underpins the trader consensus reflected in the current odds. The most recent confirmed test occurred in July 2026 when the People’s Liberation Army Navy fired a submarine-launched missile with a dummy warhead into the Pacific, drawing regional criticism but described by Beijing as routine training. No subsequent military launches meeting the market criteria have been reported through mid-September, and satellite or space-vehicle activities such as the September Gravity-1 carrier rocket deployment do not qualify. Absent new signals of escalation or scheduled exercises within the resolution window, the low frequency of qualifying events continues to shape market positioning.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডChina ballistic missile launch by December 31?
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
19% সম্ভাবনা
$10,991 Vol.
$10,991 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
19% সম্ভাবনা
$10,991 Vol.
$10,991 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s established pattern of infrequent public long-range ballistic missile tests, with only isolated submarine-launched or intercontinental events acknowledged over decades, underpins the trader consensus reflected in the current odds. The most recent confirmed test occurred in July 2026 when the People’s Liberation Army Navy fired a submarine-launched missile with a dummy warhead into the Pacific, drawing regional criticism but described by Beijing as routine training. No subsequent military launches meeting the market criteria have been reported through mid-September, and satellite or space-vehicle activities such as the September Gravity-1 carrier rocket deployment do not qualify. Absent new signals of escalation or scheduled exercises within the resolution window, the low frequency of qualifying events continues to shape market positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
ভলিউম
$10,991শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s established pattern of infrequent public long-range ballistic missile tests, with only isolated submarine-launched or intercontinental events acknowledged over decades, underpins the trader consensus reflected in the current odds. The most recent confirmed test occurred in July 2026 when the People’s Liberation Army Navy fired a submarine-launched missile with a dummy warhead into the Pacific, drawing regional criticism but described by Beijing as routine training. No subsequent military launches meeting the market criteria have been reported through mid-September, and satellite or space-vehicle activities such as the September Gravity-1 carrier rocket deployment do not qualify. Absent new signals of escalation or scheduled exercises within the resolution window, the low frequency of qualifying events continues to shape market positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
ভলিউম
$10,991শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...China’s established pattern of infrequent public long-range ballistic missile tests, with only isolated submarine-launched or intercontinental events acknowledged over decades, underpins the trader consensus reflected in the current odds. The most recent confirmed test occurred in July 2026 when the People’s Liberation Army Navy fired a submarine-launched missile with a dummy warhead into the Pacific, drawing regional criticism but described by Beijing as routine training. No subsequent military launches meeting the market criteria have been reported through mid-September, and satellite or space-vehicle activities such as the September Gravity-1 carrier rocket deployment do not qualify. Absent new signals of escalation or scheduled exercises within the resolution window, the low frequency of qualifying events continues to shape market positioning.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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