**U.S. nuclear test by...?** Traders assign low probabilities to a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 because the country has maintained a voluntary moratorium on such tests since 1992, with the last underground detonation occurring that year. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with rivals prompted clarification from administration officials that activities would likely involve subcritical or non-yield-producing experiments rather than full-scale explosions, amid assessments that explosive readiness requires up to 36 months. Congressional oversight, Nevada state opposition, funding priorities for stockpile stewardship without dedicated test-site reactivation, and concerns over arms-control implications have further slowed momentum. Ongoing U.S.-Russia-China diplomatic frictions and New START expiration in February 2026 remain key variables that could influence future decisions, though no confirmed explosive test schedule has emerged.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডদ্বারা মার্কিন পারমাণবিক পরীক্ষা...?
দ্বারা মার্কিন পারমাণবিক পরীক্ষা...?
$770,068 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
৩০ সেপ্টেম্বর, ২০২৬
1%
৩১ ডিসেম্বর, ২০২৬
4%
$770,068 Vol.
৩০ সেপ্টেম্বর, ২০২৬
$57,189 Vol.
1%
৩১ ডিসেম্বর, ২০২৬
$52,068 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear test by...?** Traders assign low probabilities to a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 because the country has maintained a voluntary moratorium on such tests since 1992, with the last underground detonation occurring that year. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with rivals prompted clarification from administration officials that activities would likely involve subcritical or non-yield-producing experiments rather than full-scale explosions, amid assessments that explosive readiness requires up to 36 months. Congressional oversight, Nevada state opposition, funding priorities for stockpile stewardship without dedicated test-site reactivation, and concerns over arms-control implications have further slowed momentum. Ongoing U.S.-Russia-China diplomatic frictions and New START expiration in February 2026 remain key variables that could influence future decisions, though no confirmed explosive test schedule has emerged.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
ভলিউম
$770,068শেষ তারিখ
Mar 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear test by...?** Traders assign low probabilities to a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 because the country has maintained a voluntary moratorium on such tests since 1992, with the last underground detonation occurring that year. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with rivals prompted clarification from administration officials that activities would likely involve subcritical or non-yield-producing experiments rather than full-scale explosions, amid assessments that explosive readiness requires up to 36 months. Congressional oversight, Nevada state opposition, funding priorities for stockpile stewardship without dedicated test-site reactivation, and concerns over arms-control implications have further slowed momentum. Ongoing U.S.-Russia-China diplomatic frictions and New START expiration in February 2026 remain key variables that could influence future decisions, though no confirmed explosive test schedule has emerged.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$770,068শেষ তারিখ
Mar 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**U.S. nuclear test by...?** Traders assign low probabilities to a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 because the country has maintained a voluntary moratorium on such tests since 1992, with the last underground detonation occurring that year. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with rivals prompted clarification from administration officials that activities would likely involve subcritical or non-yield-producing experiments rather than full-scale explosions, amid assessments that explosive readiness requires up to 36 months. Congressional oversight, Nevada state opposition, funding priorities for stockpile stewardship without dedicated test-site reactivation, and concerns over arms-control implications have further slowed momentum. Ongoing U.S.-Russia-China diplomatic frictions and New START expiration in February 2026 remain key variables that could influence future decisions, though no confirmed explosive test schedule has emerged.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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