Market-implied odds of 65.5% against a U.S. recession by the end of 2027 reflect sustained GDP growth, a resilient labor market with low unemployment, and the Federal Reserve's measured easing of monetary policy. Recent economic releases, including steady nonfarm payrolls and contained inflation metrics, have reinforced trader views of a soft landing scenario over contraction, though higher Treasury yields and external risks continue to influence positioning. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications and fourth-quarter 2026 GDP data, which will help refine the market's implied growth path through 2027.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড35% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 31, 2027
35% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2026 was negative, and the Q2 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2027 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productMarket-implied odds of 65.5% against a U.S. recession by the end of 2027 reflect sustained GDP growth, a resilient labor market with low unemployment, and the Federal Reserve's measured easing of monetary policy. Recent economic releases, including steady nonfarm payrolls and contained inflation metrics, have reinforced trader views of a soft landing scenario over contraction, though higher Treasury yields and external risks continue to influence positioning. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications and fourth-quarter 2026 GDP data, which will help refine the market's implied growth path through 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2026 was negative, and the Q2 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2027 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2026 was negative, and the Q2 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2027 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
ভলিউম
$9,426শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2026 was negative, and the Q2 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2027 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productMarket-implied odds of 65.5% against a U.S. recession by the end of 2027 reflect sustained GDP growth, a resilient labor market with low unemployment, and the Federal Reserve's measured easing of monetary policy. Recent economic releases, including steady nonfarm payrolls and contained inflation metrics, have reinforced trader views of a soft landing scenario over contraction, though higher Treasury yields and external risks continue to influence positioning. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications and fourth-quarter 2026 GDP data, which will help refine the market's implied growth path through 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2026 was negative, and the Q2 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2027 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2026 was negative, and the Q2 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2027 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
ভলিউম
$9,426শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Market-implied odds of 65.5% against a U.S. recession by the end of 2027 reflect sustained GDP growth, a resilient labor market with low unemployment, and the Federal Reserve's measured easing of monetary policy. Recent economic releases, including steady nonfarm payrolls and contained inflation metrics, have reinforced trader views of a soft landing scenario over contraction, though higher Treasury yields and external risks continue to influence positioning. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications and fourth-quarter 2026 GDP data, which will help refine the market's implied growth path through 2027.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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