Incumbent Rep. Becca Balint's announcement last week of her bid for a third term in Vermont's at-large congressional district has solidified trader consensus on a Democratic hold, pricing the party at 93% implied probability amid the state's strong partisan lean toward Democrats. Balint's comfortable reelection in 2024 with over 70% of the vote, combined with no high-profile Republican challenger emerging—like 2024 foe Mark Coester who garnered under 30%—drives the lopsided odds, reflecting historical base rates in safely blue districts. Vermont's open primary on August 11 precedes the November 3 general election, but a seismic GOP recruitment, Balint scandal, or national Republican wave would be needed to challenge this trajectory.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডVT-AL House Election Winner
VT-AL House Election Winner
$11,261 Vol.
$11,261 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$11,261 Vol.
$11,261 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,357 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$4,904 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Becca Balint's announcement last week of her bid for a third term in Vermont's at-large congressional district has solidified trader consensus on a Democratic hold, pricing the party at 93% implied probability amid the state's strong partisan lean toward Democrats. Balint's comfortable reelection in 2024 with over 70% of the vote, combined with no high-profile Republican challenger emerging—like 2024 foe Mark Coester who garnered under 30%—drives the lopsided odds, reflecting historical base rates in safely blue districts. Vermont's open primary on August 11 precedes the November 3 general election, but a seismic GOP recruitment, Balint scandal, or national Republican wave would be needed to challenge this trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
ভলিউম
$11,261শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Becca Balint's announcement last week of her bid for a third term in Vermont's at-large congressional district has solidified trader consensus on a Democratic hold, pricing the party at 93% implied probability amid the state's strong partisan lean toward Democrats. Balint's comfortable reelection in 2024 with over 70% of the vote, combined with no high-profile Republican challenger emerging—like 2024 foe Mark Coester who garnered under 30%—drives the lopsided odds, reflecting historical base rates in safely blue districts. Vermont's open primary on August 11 precedes the November 3 general election, but a seismic GOP recruitment, Balint scandal, or national Republican wave would be needed to challenge this trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ভলিউম
$11,261শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Becca Balint's announcement last week of her bid for a third term in Vermont's at-large congressional district has solidified trader consensus on a Democratic hold, pricing the party at 93% implied probability amid the state's strong partisan lean toward Democrats. Balint's comfortable reelection in 2024 with over 70% of the vote, combined with no high-profile Republican challenger emerging—like 2024 foe Mark Coester who garnered under 30%—drives the lopsided odds, reflecting historical base rates in safely blue districts. Vermont's open primary on August 11 precedes the November 3 general election, but a seismic GOP recruitment, Balint scandal, or national Republican wave would be needed to challenge this trajectory.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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