John Cornyn’s refusal to campaign for or endorse Republican nominee Ken Paxton has anchored trader expectations in the Texas Senate race. After losing the May 2026 Republican primary runoff to Paxton by a wide margin following Donald Trump’s endorsement of the challenger, Cornyn has repeatedly cited primary criticisms of Paxton’s general-election viability and stated he will not assist the nominee. Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico on November 3, with polls showing a close contest. Talarico has publicly welcomed a possible Cornyn endorsement, yet no cross-party move has materialized. With the general election weeks away and Cornyn maintaining distance from the Republican ticket, market pricing reflects the view that an endorsement of any listed candidate remains unlikely absent a major late shift in positioning.