Recent developments center on a preliminary U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reached in mid-June 2026 after more than 100 days of conflict that began with U.S.-Israeli strikes in February. The 14-point framework extends the existing ceasefire for 60 days, commits Iran to forgo nuclear weapons, outlines sanctions relief and oil export waivers tied to further progress, and schedules reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with formal signing expected shortly in Geneva. Nuclear enrichment limits, highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and a $300 billion reconstruction fund remain deferred for the next negotiation round. President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian have been central signatories to the initial document, while mediators from Pakistan and Qatar facilitated talks. The 60-day window ending around mid-August creates a clear timeline for any comprehensive follow-on agreement before the market resolution date.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডIAEA confirms US-Iran peace deal grants access to Tehran's nuclear sites
Abbas Araghchi dips to 6%1%
The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that the US-Iran memorandum of understanding includes provisions for nuclear inspections in Iran, a key element of the deal affecting market confidence in Iranian officials' roles.
President Trump states Iranian regime violated ceasefire with drone attack on Strait of Hormuz
On June 26, President Trump announced that Iran fired drones at the Strait of Hormuz, violating the temporary ceasefire extension. This escalated tensions and decreased market confidence in the deal's finalization and signatories' involvement.
Kuwaiti Emir meets U.S. Secretary of State Rubio in Abu Dhabi
Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah plunges to 10%35%
Kuwait’s Emir Mishal met with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio in Abu Dhabi, emphasizing Kuwait’s interest in the deal; the market’s confidence in him decreased as the focus shifted to other signatories.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf resigns from negotiating team
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 35%26%
Ghalibaf resigned from the Iranian negotiating team due to internal disagreements, signaling a shift toward hardliners and reducing the likelihood of his signing the deal. This event caused a sharp drop in market confidence for Ghalibaf's signing probability.
Marco Rubio tours Gulf states, rejects Iranian tolls on Strait of Hormuz
Marco Rubio plunges to 3%43%
On June 23, 2026, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio began a diplomatic tour of Gulf countries, emphasizing that no country, including Iran, would be allowed to charge tolls for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. His firm stance aimed to reassure U.S. allies but coincided with his declining market price due to skepticism about the deal and his relative silence on the agreement.
Dispute arises over Iran's agreement to allow UN inspectors at bombed nuclear sites
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 11%24%
A public dispute emerged between the U.S. and Iran over whether Tehran had agreed to allow UN inspectors to visit nuclear sites damaged in previous strikes. This disagreement highlighted ongoing mistrust and complicated finalizing the deal, contributing to low market confidence in signatories like Ghalibaf and Khamenei.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio tours Gulf to reassure allies on US-Iran peace deal
Marco Rubio dips to 3%3%
Starting June 23, 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain to reassure Gulf allies about the US-Iran memorandum of understanding and address regional security concerns, including the Strait of Hormuz. Rubio emphasized the US commitment to Gulf security and the importance of peace and stability, but his market confidence as a signatory remained low due to political scrutiny and skepticism.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reports major progress in US talks to end Lebanon war
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 6%39%
Araghchi announced significant progress in talks with the US, including ceasefire and sanctions discussions, which affected market confidence in his involvement in the deal, though his signing probability remained low at 6%.
US and Iran agree on roadmap for final deal and plan to end military operations in Lebanon
Negotiators from the US and Iran agreed on a roadmap to finalize a peace deal and end military operations in Lebanon, with involvement from mediators Pakistan and Qatar, influencing market confidence in Iranian signatories.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits Gulf allies to discuss Iran deal amid regional concerns
Marco Rubio dips to 3%2%
Starting June 22, 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain to discuss the US-Iran memorandum of understanding and regional security issues, including safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz. This visit aimed to reassure Gulf allies concerned about the deal's provisions, such as the proposed $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran and the lack of missile restrictions, reflecting ongoing regional diplomatic efforts.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance confirms digital signing of U.S.–Iran MOU
Vice President JD Vance publicly announced the digital signing of the memorandum by U.S. and Iranian representatives, confirming the agreement’s existence and collapsing the market’s expectations for many other individuals.
Araghchi says ‘major progress’ after first Switzerland talks
Abbas Araghchi dips to 7%4%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that “major progress” was made after the first round of talks in Switzerland, briefly raising his odds before the market slid again.
First round of U.S.-Iran talks conclude with progress on Lebanon and Hormuz
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 7%38%
High-level talks in Switzerland on June 21, 2026, led by U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian negotiators including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi, resulted in a roadmap for a final deal within 60 days and the establishment of a de-confliction cell for Lebanon. This maintained market interest in Ghalibaf and Araghchi as signatories.
First round of US-Iran talks concludes in Switzerland with progress on final deal roadmap
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rises to 19%1%
On June 21, 2026, the first round of high-level negotiations between the US and Iran concluded in Switzerland with both sides agreeing on a roadmap to reach a final deal within 60 days. The talks included establishing communication lines to avoid incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and frameworks to end military operations in Lebanon. Despite progress, tensions remained due to ongoing fighting in Lebanon and renewed threats from US President Trump, impacting market sentiment.
U.S. and Iran agree on roadmap for final deal and plan to end military operations in Lebanon
Negotiators from the U.S. and Iran agreed to establish committees and working groups to advance talks on nuclear monitoring, sanctions, and dispute resolution, including a framework to end military operations in Lebanon. This progress was a positive sign for the deal but did not significantly raise market odds for individual signatories.
UAE President calls Iranian President to discuss cease‑fire
Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan plunges to 5%41%
UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed called the Iranian President on the phone, reaffirming UAE support for the cease‑fire, but his odds fell as the market saw other actors taking the signing lead.
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner travel to Switzerland for postponed Iran talks
Steve Witkoff jumps to 16%8%
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner traveled to Switzerland to resume negotiations aimed at finalizing a peace deal with Iran after earlier talks were postponed. This move signaled renewed diplomatic efforts but market confidence in Witkoff signing the deal remained low due to ongoing complexities.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei approves US-Iran framework agreement with reservations
Mojtaba Khamenei plunges to 3%43%
Mojtaba Khamenei approved the framework agreement with the US despite principled disagreements, signaling cautious acceptance that influenced market perceptions of his role in signing the deal, leading to a price drop to 3%.
US envoy Steve Witkoff travels to Switzerland for follow-up Iran talks
Steve Witkoff rises to 6%3%
Steve Witkoff, US special envoy, traveled to Switzerland to engage in technical talks following the initial peace deal signing, indicating ongoing US involvement in the agreement's implementation. This maintained low but positive market interest in Witkoff as a potential signer.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman welcomes US-Iran peace deal
Mohammed bin Salman plunges to 8%38%
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman publicly welcomed the US-Iran memorandum of understanding and praised Pakistan's mediation efforts, slightly increasing market confidence in him as a potential signatory despite his traditionally cautious stance.
Top Democrats demand briefing from Secretary of State Marco Rubio on US-Iran deal
Marco Rubio plunges to 5%41%
Senior House Democrats demanded an immediate briefing from Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the memorandum of understanding signed with Iran, reflecting political scrutiny and skepticism. Rubio's market confidence as a signatory remained very low and declined during the period.
US envoy Steve Witkoff heads to Switzerland for Iran nuclear talks
Steve Witkoff plunges to 5%40%
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Switzerland to participate in nuclear negotiations with Iran, indicating the US commitment to the ongoing peace process. Market confidence in Witkoff as a signatory remained very low.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio faces congressional demand for briefing on Iran deal
Marco Rubio plunges to 6%40%
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was requested by congressional Democrats to provide a detailed briefing on the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, reflecting political scrutiny and affecting market perception of Rubio's role in the deal.
US and Iran to formally sign peace deal in Geneva on June 19
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rises to 19%2%
The formal signing ceremony of the US-Iran peace agreement was scheduled for June 19, 2026, in Geneva, Switzerland, with Pakistan hosting the event. US Vice President JD Vance confirmed his attendance, and there was speculation about President Trump's possible presence. Iranian officials indicated that either Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf or Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi might represent Iran. This event was a key milestone in the diplomatic process and influenced market expectations.
Formal signing ceremony of US-Iran peace agreement held in Geneva
On June 19, 2026, a formal signing ceremony for the US-Iran peace agreement took place in Geneva, attended by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, U.S. Vice President JD Vance, and other officials. This event confirmed Ghalibaf as a key signatory and solidified the deal's legitimacy, causing market confidence in him to peak.
US envoy Steve Witkoff travels to Switzerland for potential US-Iran nuclear talks
Steve Witkoff plunges to 3%42%
Steve Witkoff, US special envoy, traveled to Switzerland for negotiations with Iran, indicating active US diplomatic engagement and affecting market pricing of his likelihood to sign the deal, which remained low at 3%.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff reports Iran to invite UN nuclear inspectors under new deal
Steve Witkoff plunges to 5%26%
Steve Witkoff informed U.S. lawmakers that Iran would invite the UN's nuclear watchdog to inspect its nuclear sites as part of the agreement, a significant step toward verification and trust-building. This development was crucial for the deal's implementation but did not directly increase the likelihood of Witkoff himself signing the deal.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf resigns from Iran negotiating team, reducing chances of his signing
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 23%67%
Ghalibaf resigned from the negotiating team due to internal disagreements, which significantly lowered market confidence in him as the signatory, causing a sharp price drop.
Democrats demand briefing from Marco Rubio on Iran deal details
Marco Rubio dips to 5%3%
Top Democratic lawmakers requested an immediate briefing from Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the memorandum of understanding with Iran, seeking details on sanctions relief, nuclear program, and enforcement. This scrutiny contributed to a further decline in Rubio's market price.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticizes US-Iran deal amid domestic backlash
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 3%11%
Benjamin Netanyahu faced widespread criticism in Israel over the US-Iran peace deal, which many viewed as a strategic failure. His low market confidence as a signatory reflects his political distancing from the agreement and opposition within Israel.
Top Democrats demand Secretary of State Marco Rubio brief Congress on US-Iran deal
Marco Rubio plunges to 6%40%
On June 18, 2026, leading Democratic lawmakers demanded that Secretary of State Marco Rubio provide a detailed briefing to Congress on the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, reflecting political scrutiny and uncertainty about Rubio's role in the deal, which contributed to a decline in market confidence for Rubio as a signatory.
Top Democrats demand briefing from Marco Rubio on U.S.-Iran deal details
Marco Rubio dips to 5%1%
Following the signing, U.S. lawmakers demanded detailed briefings from Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the memorandum of understanding, reflecting political scrutiny and impacting market confidence in Rubio's role.
Marco Rubio remains silent amid growing criticism of Iran deal
Secretary of State Marco Rubio maintained a low profile as criticism of the Iran deal intensified, signaling political caution. This sustained low market confidence in Rubio as a signatory.
Rubio gives Iran deal the silent treatment at G7
Marco Rubio plunges to 2%44%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio remained silent at the G7 press conference, prompting market participants to view him as a less‑likely signatory; his odds fell from 46 % on 12 Jun to 2 % on 25 Jun.
Qatar’s Emir discusses U.S.–Iran cease‑fire with French President
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani plunges to 9%36%
Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani discussed the U.S.–Iran cease‑fire with French President Macron, indicating regional support but without direct involvement, leading to a modest decline in his odds.
US special envoy Steve Witkoff reveals Iran will invite UN nuclear inspectors under new deal
Steve Witkoff jumps to 14%11%
On June 18, 2026, US special envoy Steve Witkoff disclosed in a confidential briefing that Iran would invite the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect its nuclear sites as part of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding. This development indicated progress on nuclear oversight and boosted market confidence in Witkoff's role as a potential signatory, although his overall market price remained low.
Trump envoy Steve Witkoff briefs US Congress on Iran deal details including nuclear inspections
Steve Witkoff plunges to 3%42%
Witkoff revealed that Iran will invite the IAEA to inspect nuclear sites, indicating ongoing cooperation post-deal; his role as special envoy was critical but he was not a signatory, reflected in low market prices.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei endorses face-to-face negotiations and approves MOU
Mojtaba Khamenei dips to 3%2%
On June 18, 2026, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei publicly endorsed face-to-face negotiations with the U.S. and stated he approved the memorandum of understanding signed by the Iranian and U.S. presidents, despite initial reservations. This official approval was significant but did not involve him signing the deal, reflected in low market confidence.
Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani expresses support for peaceful solutions amid U.S.-Iran deal
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani plunges to 9%36%
Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani publicly supported diplomatic efforts to resolve the U.S.-Iran conflict peacefully, reflecting Qatar's role as a mediator and slightly influencing market confidence in Tamim as a signatory.
US President Donald Trump signs Iran peace deal at Palace of Versailles
Marco Rubio jumps to 11%5%
President Trump signed the US-Iran peace deal unexpectedly during a dinner at the Palace of Versailles, causing Secretary of State Marco Rubio to scramble for a printer. This event confirmed the formal signing and boosted market confidence in signatories associated with the US side.
Marco Rubio involved in Iran deal signing at Palace of Versailles
Marco Rubio drops to 8%11%
US President Donald Trump decided to sign the Iran deal immediately at the Palace of Versailles, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio involved in last-minute arrangements including finding a printer. Rubio's involvement was noted but he was not the primary signer, leading to a decline in his market price.
Democrats demand briefing from Marco Rubio on U.S.-Iran memorandum
Top Democrats requested an immediate briefing from Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the memorandum of understanding with Iran, highlighting political scrutiny and pressure. This event contributed to market skepticism about Rubio's role as a signatory.
Trump signs US-Iran memorandum of understanding at Palace of Versailles
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf jumps to 96%5%
President Donald Trump physically signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding with Iran's lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf at the Palace of Versailles, formalizing the preliminary peace deal and starting the 60-day negotiation period for a final agreement. This reinforced market confidence in Ghalibaf as the signatory.
White House explores meeting to revive U.S.-Iran negotiations
Abbas Araghchi drops to 11%14%
The White House considered a meeting between envoy Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to revive negotiations and prevent further conflict, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts. This maintained market uncertainty for Araghchi as a signatory.
Trump signs U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding at Palace of Versailles
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 17%42%
President Donald Trump personally signed the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding at a dinner hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio present, marking a critical milestone in the deal's formalization and causing a sharp price drop for Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as the signatory role was clarified.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian sign the US-Iran peace deal at Versailles
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf drops to 6%5%
On June 17, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a hard copy of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding during a state dinner at the Palace of Versailles, France. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also signed the document, bringing the agreement into immediate effect. This formal signing confirmed the deal to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and initiate further negotiations, solidifying Ghalibaf's role as the Iranian signatory.
US President Donald Trump signs US-Iran memorandum of understanding at Palace of Versailles
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 96%52%
On June 17, 2026, President Donald Trump physically signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding with Iran's lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf at the Palace of Versailles, formalizing the preliminary peace deal and starting the 60-day negotiation period for a final agreement. This event was pivotal and caused a peak in market confidence for Ghalibaf.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expected in Geneva for signing
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 91%40%
Reports indicated that Ghalibaf and Araghchi were expected to travel to Geneva for the signing of the US-Iran agreement, with US Vice President JD Vance representing Washington. This raised market confidence in Ghalibaf as the signatory, reflected in a price peak.
Top Democrats demand briefing from Secretary of State Marco Rubio on U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding
Marco Rubio plunges to 11%35%
Congressional Democrats requested a briefing from Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, reflecting scrutiny and skepticism about the deal. Rubio's role as Secretary of State and his involvement in the deal affected market confidence in him as a signatory.
U.S. and Iran sign initial deal at Palace of Versailles, Trump physically signs and hands pen to Rubio
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 14%76%
President Donald Trump signed the U.S.-Iran agreement at the Palace of Versailles in France, handing the document and pen to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also signed the deal digitally. This event confirmed Ghalibaf as the signatory and caused a sharp drop in confidence for other potential signatories.
Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani discusses US-Iran ceasefire and regional stability with French President Macron
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani plunges to 8%37%
Sheikh Tamim's diplomatic engagement and mediation efforts were recognized as important for regional peace, though he was not a signatory, reflected in low market confidence.
Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian sign US-Iran peace memorandum at Versailles
Marco Rubio plunges to 7%39%
President Trump signed the peace deal at the Palace of Versailles, handing the document to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while Iranian President Pezeshkian signed in Tehran, confirming the deal's execution.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio faces scrutiny over Iran deal role
Marco Rubio plunges to 6%37%
Marco Rubio remained largely silent after the preliminary peace deal announcement, facing demands from Democrats for briefings on the agreement. His low market confidence reflects skepticism about his role as a signatory amid internal US political divisions.
Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani discusses US-Iran deal with President Trump
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani jumps to 45%5%
Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and US President Donald Trump held a phone call discussing efforts for regional de-escalation and stability amid US-Iran negotiations, supporting diplomatic efforts and boosting market confidence in Tamim as a potential signatory.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi prepare for nuclear talks in Switzerland
Steve Witkoff plunges to 15%30%
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were reported to be traveling to Switzerland for nuclear talks, indicating ongoing negotiations and maintaining market interest in Witkoff and Araghchi as potential signatories.
Araghchi Briefs Diplomats on Lebanon Conditions in U.S.-Iran Memorandum
Abbas Araghchi dips to 33%2%
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized that the memorandum of understanding requires an immediate end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, which highlighted his secondary role compared to Ghalibaf who signed the deal.
Marco Rubio and other U.S. officials express skepticism over Iran deal
Marco Rubio dips to 9%2%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other U.S. officials voiced doubts about Iran's commitment to the memorandum of understanding, reflecting internal U.S. skepticism. This caused a decline in market confidence for Rubio as a potential signatory.
Saudi Cabinet chaired by Mohammed bin Salman welcomes US-Iran agreement
Mohammed bin Salman plunges to 5%41%
Saudi Arabia's official support for the US-Iran deal slightly increased market confidence in Mohammed bin Salman as a potential signatory.
Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and U.S. President Trump discuss regional tensions and diplomatic efforts
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani plunges to 25%20%
Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and U.S. President Donald Trump discussed regional developments and efforts to maintain peace and security, including support for diplomatic efforts led by Pakistan to prevent escalation between the U.S. and Iran. This reinforced market confidence in Sheikh Tamim as a potential signatory.
Peace deal virtually signed by US President, Vance, and Iran's Ghalibaf
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf jumps to 96%5%
The US President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf virtually signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war. This formalized the deal and confirmed Ghalibaf as a signer, causing market prices for Ghalibaf to peak.
Trump meets Gulf leaders at G7 summit, discusses Iran deal and regional stability
Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan dips to 10%2%
Trump met with Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the G7 summit, discussing the Iran deal and regional security, which influenced market perceptions of the deal's progress and the roles of Gulf leaders.
Saudi Crown Prince backs U.S.–Iran memorandum
Mohammed bin Salman plunges to 9%37%
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman publicly welcomed the U.S.–Iran MOU on X, giving a brief boost to his odds, which then fell steadily as the market reassessed his role.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announces first round of negotiations post-MoU in Switzerland
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 35%47%
Abbas Araghchi stated that the first round of negotiations with the U.S. would begin immediately after signing the MoU in Switzerland, focusing on lifting sanctions and Iran's nuclear program. This announcement indicated progress in talks but also highlighted ongoing mistrust, affecting market confidence in Araghchi's role.
Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi says deal includes end of war and Lebanon truce
Abbas Araghchi surges to 60%27%
On June 16, 2026, Abbas Araghchi stated that the peace deal includes an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, highlighting the broader regional implications of the agreement. This reinforced market confidence in Araghchi despite earlier protests.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman welcomes US-Iran agreement and commends Pakistan mediation
Mohammed bin Salman plunges to 9%37%
Mohammed bin Salman publicly welcomed the US-Iran agreement to end military operations and praised Pakistan's mediation efforts, impacting market perceptions though his signing probability dropped to 9%.
Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani praises US-Iran deal at G7 summit
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani plunges to 25%20%
On June 16, 2026, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani praised the US-Iran deal during a press briefing with US President Donald Trump at the G7 summit, highlighting the importance of the agreement for regional stability. This engagement influenced market perceptions but did not translate into a high probability of him signing the deal.
US and Iran virtually sign memorandum of understanding to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 19%32%
On June 15, 2026, the United States and Iran electronically signed a memorandum of understanding to end hostilities, lift the US naval blockade, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, starting a 60-day negotiation period for a final deal. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf signed for Iran, alongside US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. This event marked a major diplomatic breakthrough and caused significant market reactions, especially for Ghalibaf's signing probability.
U.S. and Iran sign memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire and start nuclear talks
On June 15, 2026, the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) aimed at extending the ceasefire and initiating further nuclear negotiations. This agreement was a major breakthrough, raising hopes for a permanent peace deal and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which positively influenced market perceptions of a deal being signed.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance announces digital signing of U.S.-Iran memorandum
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 11%24%
JD Vance announced that the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran was digitally signed, confirming the deal's formalization. This event caused a sharp drop in confidence for Abbas Araghchi and Marco Rubio as signatories, while Ghalibaf's probability fluctuated.
Pakistan mediates US-Iran deal to end war, signing ceremony planned in Switzerland
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced a deal between the US and Iran to end military operations, with a signing ceremony scheduled, raising market attention on potential signatories including regional leaders.
US and Iran sign preliminary peace deal in Geneva
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 91%40%
President Donald Trump and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, initiating a 60-day negotiation period for a final agreement. This event caused a surge in market confidence for Ghalibaf as the likely signatory.
U.S. and Iran reach preliminary peace agreement, signing planned for Friday
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 11%34%
A memorandum of understanding was announced to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with signing scheduled, increasing market confidence in key signatories.
U.S. and Iran electronically sign memorandum of understanding to end war
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 91%40%
On June 15, 2026, the United States and Iran electronically signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding to end the war, with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and U.S. President Donald Trump among the signatories. This event caused a spike in market confidence for Ghalibaf and a decline for others.
US and Iran reach preliminary peace deal, signing planned in Switzerland
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 91%46%
Reports confirmed that the US and Iran had reached a preliminary peace deal, with a signing ceremony scheduled in Switzerland. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi were identified as Iranian signatories, while US envoys including Vice President JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner were involved. This event caused a spike in market prices for Ghalibaf and Araghchi.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposes U.S.-Iran deal, distances himself from signing
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 8%37%
Benjamin Netanyahu publicly opposed the U.S.-Iran peace deal, emphasizing Israel is not a signatory and distancing himself from Trump's decision to sign it. This opposition contributed to a decline in market confidence for Netanyahu as a potential signatory.
U.S.-Iran Deal Signed Electronically by Trump, Vance, and Ghalibaf
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 90%39%
Senior administration officials revealed that the U.S.-Iran deal was signed electronically on Sunday by President Trump, Vice President Vance, and Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, causing Ghalibaf's odds to skyrocket.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iran's Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf electronically sign memorandum of understanding
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 90%39%
The U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf electronically signed the memorandum of understanding to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, marking a key milestone in the peace process and causing a surge in Ghalibaf's market price.
US and Iran reach preliminary peace deal, signing ceremony planned in Switzerland
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that the US and Iran had reached an agreement to end their war, with an official signing ceremony scheduled for June 19 in Geneva. This marked a major breakthrough and increased market activity around potential signatories.
U.S. and Iran announce 60‑day cease‑fire MOU
The United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding (MOU) extending a cease‑fire for 60 days and opening the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement lifted market confidence for all potential signatories, but the subsequent focus on hard‑liners caused a rapid decline in all odds, driving each outcome toward single‑digit percentages.
U.S. and Iran sign preliminary peace deal in Geneva
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 91%40%
On June 15, 2026, the United States and Iran signed a preliminary memorandum of understanding in Geneva to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and start a 60-day negotiation period on Iran's nuclear program and sanctions relief. The signing was led by U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, marking a significant diplomatic milestone and confirming Ghalibaf's role as a signatory.
U.S. and Iran digitally sign memorandum of understanding to end war
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 17%34%
On June 15, 2026, the United States and Iran digitally signed a memorandum of understanding to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and start a 60-day negotiation period for a final deal. The signing involved U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, boosting market confidence in their roles as signatories.
U.S. and Iran reach preliminary peace deal, signing planned for June 19
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 90%39%
The U.S. and Iran announced a preliminary agreement to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a signing ceremony scheduled in Switzerland. This boosted market confidence in Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as the lead Iranian negotiator expected to sign the deal.
Araghchi details draft deal covering Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon conflict
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 46%18%
Araghchi outlined key provisions of the draft memorandum including lifting the US naval blockade, management of the Strait of Hormuz, and a ceasefire in Lebanon. This reinforced the seriousness of the deal and impacted market prices for Araghchi.
Protests erupt in Iran against peace deal negotiators Ghalibaf and Araghchi
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf plunges to 35%58%
Dozens protested outside the Iranian Foreign Ministry in Mashhad against Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf over the emerging US-Iran peace deal, reflecting internal opposition and causing market confidence in these signatories to decline.
Protests in Iran target Abbas Araghchi over US-Iran deal
Abbas Araghchi plunges to 54%28%
On June 13, 2026, protests erupted outside the Iranian Foreign Ministry against Abbas Araghchi due to opposition from hardliners to the US-Iran peace deal. This domestic backlash contributed to a sharp decline in market confidence for Araghchi as a signatory.
Hardline Iranians Protest Against Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf Over Impending Deal
Abbas Araghchi surges to 66%16%
Hardline regime supporters in Iran staged protests against Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, accusing them of compromising with the U.S. as the deal neared completion.
Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif announces final text of U.S.-Iran peace deal agreed
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that the U.S. and Iran had agreed on the final text of a peace deal, signaling a major diplomatic breakthrough and boosting market confidence in the deal's imminent signing.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announces draft U.S.-Iran deal includes ending naval blockade and Hormuz arrangements
On June 12, 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publicly stated that a draft memorandum of understanding with the U.S. included lifting the naval blockade on Iranian ports and new arrangements for managing the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement increased market optimism for a deal and influenced price movements for Araghchi as a potential signatory.
Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi says US-Iran deal 'never been closer'
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf surges to 90%39%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi tweeted that the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding was closer to completion than ever, signaling a potential breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations. This boosted market confidence in Araghchi and Ghalibaf as key signatories.
Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi says Islamabad MOU closer than ever
Abbas Araghchi surges to 82%37%
On June 12, 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding with the U.S. was closer than ever to finalization, signaling significant progress in negotiations. This optimism caused a surge in market confidence for Araghchi as a potential signatory.
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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