**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and Hormuz restrictions continue to shape trader views.** Since late February 2026, Iranian forces have imposed controls, inspections, routing requirements, and selective denials on commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil. A US naval blockade of Iranian ports followed in April, while recent US strikes prompted Iran’s military command to declare a full closure to tankers and commercial vessels on June 10–11, threatening attacks on any attempting passage. Draft frameworks discussed in May for restoring pre-war shipping levels, lifting blockades, and establishing coordinated management (including possible fees or Omani cooperation) remain un finalized. Iran has rejected or cast doubt on reports of imminent deals, continued pressing for verification and conditions, and faced US sanctions on entities seeking to regulate transit. With the June 30 deadline only weeks away and active military exchanges persisting, traders assess little prospect of an agreement granting fully unrestricted access by that date. Recent diplomatic signals and enforcement actions reinforce this positioning.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
$294,925 Vol.
$294,925 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$294,925 Vol.
$294,925 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and Hormuz restrictions continue to shape trader views.** Since late February 2026, Iranian forces have imposed controls, inspections, routing requirements, and selective denials on commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil. A US naval blockade of Iranian ports followed in April, while recent US strikes prompted Iran’s military command to declare a full closure to tankers and commercial vessels on June 10–11, threatening attacks on any attempting passage.
Draft frameworks discussed in May for restoring pre-war shipping levels, lifting blockades, and establishing coordinated management (including possible fees or Omani cooperation) remain un finalized. Iran has rejected or cast doubt on reports of imminent deals, continued pressing for verification and conditions, and faced US sanctions on entities seeking to regulate transit. With the June 30 deadline only weeks away and active military exchanges persisting, traders assess little prospect of an agreement granting fully unrestricted access by that date. Recent diplomatic signals and enforcement actions reinforce this positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: May 27, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
ভলিউম
$294,925শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 27, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and Hormuz restrictions continue to shape trader views.** Since late February 2026, Iranian forces have imposed controls, inspections, routing requirements, and selective denials on commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil. A US naval blockade of Iranian ports followed in April, while recent US strikes prompted Iran’s military command to declare a full closure to tankers and commercial vessels on June 10–11, threatening attacks on any attempting passage.
Draft frameworks discussed in May for restoring pre-war shipping levels, lifting blockades, and establishing coordinated management (including possible fees or Omani cooperation) remain un finalized. Iran has rejected or cast doubt on reports of imminent deals, continued pressing for verification and conditions, and faced US sanctions on entities seeking to regulate transit. With the June 30 deadline only weeks away and active military exchanges persisting, traders assess little prospect of an agreement granting fully unrestricted access by that date. Recent diplomatic signals and enforcement actions reinforce this positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$294,938শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 27, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and Hormuz restrictions continue to shape trader views.** Since late February 2026, Iranian forces have imposed controls, inspections, routing requirements, and selective denials on commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil. A US naval blockade of Iranian ports followed in April, while recent US strikes prompted Iran’s military command to declare a full closure to tankers and commercial vessels on June 10–11, threatening attacks on any attempting passage. Draft frameworks discussed in May for restoring pre-war shipping levels, lifting blockades, and establishing coordinated management (including possible fees or Omani cooperation) remain un finalized. Iran has rejected or cast doubt on reports of imminent deals, continued pressing for verification and conditions, and faced US sanctions on entities seeking to regulate transit. With the June 30 deadline only weeks away and active military exchanges persisting, traders assess little prospect of an agreement granting fully unrestricted access by that date. Recent diplomatic signals and enforcement actions reinforce this positioning.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা