Recent September model launches have sharpened competition among frontier labs, with Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 securing the top spot on independent benchmarks while OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Meta's Muse Spark 1.3 post near-parity scores on reasoning and agentic tasks. Traders assign Meta and Google the highest implied odds for the #2 position by November because Meta's Superintelligence Labs unit and Google's rapid Gemini 3.8 Flash iterations demonstrate stronger momentum in speed, cost efficiency, and enterprise integration than OpenAI's current trajectory. Anthropic's lead makes it unlikely to finish second, while OpenAI's lower price reflects perceived vulnerability to further Chinese open-weight gains or delayed follow-ups. Key near-term catalysts include additional post-training updates and any regulatory or partnership announcements that could shift adoption metrics before the resolution window closes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMeta 30%
Google 28%
Anthropic 22%
OpenAI 8%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
Meta
30%
28%
Anthropic
22%
OpenAI
8%
SpaceXAI
7%
Tencent
4%
Moonshot
4%
ByteDance
4%
Microsoft
4%
MiniMax
3%
Alibaba
3%
Baidu
2%
Z.ai
9%
DeepSeek
9%
Amazon
1%
Nvidia
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Mistral
1%
StepFun
1%
Meta 30%
Google 28%
Anthropic 22%
OpenAI 8%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
Meta
$931 Vol.
30%
$1,891 Vol.
28%
Anthropic
$547 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$239 Vol.
8%
SpaceXAI
$170 Vol.
7%
Tencent
$648 Vol.
4%
Moonshot
$150 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$153 Vol.
4%
Microsoft
$150 Vol.
4%
MiniMax
$884 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$194 Vol.
3%
Baidu
$198 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$191 Vol.
9%
DeepSeek
$260 Vol.
9%
Amazon
$144 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$150 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$150 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$149 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$150 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$150 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$150 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent September model launches have sharpened competition among frontier labs, with Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 securing the top spot on independent benchmarks while OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Meta's Muse Spark 1.3 post near-parity scores on reasoning and agentic tasks. Traders assign Meta and Google the highest implied odds for the #2 position by November because Meta's Superintelligence Labs unit and Google's rapid Gemini 3.8 Flash iterations demonstrate stronger momentum in speed, cost efficiency, and enterprise integration than OpenAI's current trajectory. Anthropic's lead makes it unlikely to finish second, while OpenAI's lower price reflects perceived vulnerability to further Chinese open-weight gains or delayed follow-ups. Key near-term catalysts include additional post-training updates and any regulatory or partnership announcements that could shift adoption metrics before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Volumen
$7,652Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent September model launches have sharpened competition among frontier labs, with Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 securing the top spot on independent benchmarks while OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Meta's Muse Spark 1.3 post near-parity scores on reasoning and agentic tasks. Traders assign Meta and Google the highest implied odds for the #2 position by November because Meta's Superintelligence Labs unit and Google's rapid Gemini 3.8 Flash iterations demonstrate stronger momentum in speed, cost efficiency, and enterprise integration than OpenAI's current trajectory. Anthropic's lead makes it unlikely to finish second, while OpenAI's lower price reflects perceived vulnerability to further Chinese open-weight gains or delayed follow-ups. Key near-term catalysts include additional post-training updates and any regulatory or partnership announcements that could shift adoption metrics before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$7,652Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent September model launches have sharpened competition among frontier labs, with Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 securing the top spot on independent benchmarks while OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Meta's Muse Spark 1.3 post near-parity scores on reasoning and agentic tasks. Traders assign Meta and Google the highest implied odds for the #2 position by November because Meta's Superintelligence Labs unit and Google's rapid Gemini 3.8 Flash iterations demonstrate stronger momentum in speed, cost efficiency, and enterprise integration than OpenAI's current trajectory. Anthropic's lead makes it unlikely to finish second, while OpenAI's lower price reflects perceived vulnerability to further Chinese open-weight gains or delayed follow-ups. Key near-term catalysts include additional post-training updates and any regulatory or partnership announcements that could shift adoption metrics before the resolution window closes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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