Incumbent Republican Robert Aderholt secured his party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with a decisive 78-22% victory over challenger Tommy Barnes, while Democrat Amanda Pusczek advanced from her primary in the heavily Republican AL-04 district rated R+33 by the Cook Partisan Voter Index. All major forecasters classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader pricing across the 55-70% Republican margin buckets reflects the district’s consistent historical GOP performance, Aderholt’s long incumbency and fundraising edge, and the absence of recent public polling or high-profile developments that could alter baseline turnout patterns. Limited visibility for the Democratic nominee and the potential impact of broader midterm dynamics keep the precise victory spread distributed rather than concentrated.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertRepublican 60-65% 31%
Republican 55-60% 19%
Republican 65-70% 19%
Republikaner 50-55% 9.3%
$13,075 Vol.
$13,075 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republican 75%+
<1%
Republican 70-75%
5%
Republican 65-70%
19%
Republican 60-65%
31%
Republican 55-60%
19%
Republikaner 50-55%
9%
Republikaner 45-50%
5%
Republikaner 35-45 %
2%
Republikaner 0-35%
<1%
Demokrat gewinnt
4%
Republican 60-65% 31%
Republican 55-60% 19%
Republican 65-70% 19%
Republikaner 50-55% 9.3%
$13,075 Vol.
$13,075 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republican 75%+
$293 Vol.
<1%
Republican 70-75%
$498 Vol.
5%
Republican 65-70%
$2,722 Vol.
19%
Republican 60-65%
$3,336 Vol.
31%
Republican 55-60%
$3,056 Vol.
19%
Republikaner 50-55%
$458 Vol.
9%
Republikaner 45-50%
$327 Vol.
5%
Republikaner 35-45 %
$1,744 Vol.
2%
Republikaner 0-35%
$362 Vol.
<1%
Demokrat gewinnt
$279 Vol.
4%
The 2026 AL-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AL-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Robert Aderholt secured his party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with a decisive 78-22% victory over challenger Tommy Barnes, while Democrat Amanda Pusczek advanced from her primary in the heavily Republican AL-04 district rated R+33 by the Cook Partisan Voter Index. All major forecasters classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader pricing across the 55-70% Republican margin buckets reflects the district’s consistent historical GOP performance, Aderholt’s long incumbency and fundraising edge, and the absence of recent public polling or high-profile developments that could alter baseline turnout patterns. Limited visibility for the Democratic nominee and the potential impact of broader midterm dynamics keep the precise victory spread distributed rather than concentrated.
The 2026 AL-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AL-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AL-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 6, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volumen
$13,075Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 6, 2026, 5:38 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 AL-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AL-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Robert Aderholt secured his party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with a decisive 78-22% victory over challenger Tommy Barnes, while Democrat Amanda Pusczek advanced from her primary in the heavily Republican AL-04 district rated R+33 by the Cook Partisan Voter Index. All major forecasters classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader pricing across the 55-70% Republican margin buckets reflects the district’s consistent historical GOP performance, Aderholt’s long incumbency and fundraising edge, and the absence of recent public polling or high-profile developments that could alter baseline turnout patterns. Limited visibility for the Democratic nominee and the potential impact of broader midterm dynamics keep the precise victory spread distributed rather than concentrated.
The 2026 AL-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AL-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AL-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$13,075Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 6, 2026, 5:38 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Republican Robert Aderholt secured his party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with a decisive 78-22% victory over challenger Tommy Barnes, while Democrat Amanda Pusczek advanced from her primary in the heavily Republican AL-04 district rated R+33 by the Cook Partisan Voter Index. All major forecasters classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader pricing across the 55-70% Republican margin buckets reflects the district’s consistent historical GOP performance, Aderholt’s long incumbency and fundraising edge, and the absence of recent public polling or high-profile developments that could alter baseline turnout patterns. Limited visibility for the Democratic nominee and the potential impact of broader midterm dynamics keep the precise victory spread distributed rather than concentrated.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird der Kandidat der Republikanischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus 2026 im Bezirk AL-03 mit 35 %-40 % Vorsprung gewinnen?
35%
Ja
Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus im Wahlkreis AL-07 im Jahr 2026 mit 30%-35% Vorsprung gewinnen?
22%
Ja
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 25%-30%?
26%
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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