**Traders assign an 81.5% implied probability that Alexandre de Moraes will remain on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court through year-end, reflecting the high institutional barriers to removal and the absence of any decisive action against him.** Multiple Senate impeachment petitions, including dozens filed after September’s internal STF dispute over the Banco Master investigation, have not advanced under Senate President Davi Alcolumbre. Chief Justice Edson Fachin removed Moraes from the long-running fake news inquiry amid the clash with Justice André Mendonça, yet the full court postponed any probe into Moraes via a 90-day vista requested in mid-September. Moraes continues issuing rulings, including enforcement of Eduardo Bolsonaro’s sentence in early October, while justices benefit from tenure until age 75 and removal requires 54 Senate votes. Upcoming runoff dynamics and potential new Senate composition introduce uncertainty but have not shifted the consensus that swift ouster remains unlikely before 2027.