Alexandre de Moraes continues to exercise full authority as a justice on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court, most recently suspending enforcement of a May 2026 sentencing law that could have shortened former President Jair Bolsonaro’s prison term until the full court rules on its constitutionality. Brazilian Senate rules require a supermajority vote to initiate impeachment proceedings against STF justices, a threshold opposition parties have not approached despite prior public calls and U.S. sanctions that were lifted in December 2025. No new legislative action or constitutional challenge has advanced in the past month, and Moraes remains actively assigned to high-profile cases involving electoral disputes and executive measures. Traders therefore assign an 79 percent implied probability that he will retain his position through the resolution window, reflecting the structural barriers and absence of decisive political momentum for removal.