Recent polls for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election place AfD support at 17–19 percent, with the latest Forsa and INSA surveys from mid-August showing 17–18 percent amid a tight race where Die Linke leads at 19–22 percent and the CDU sits near 18–20 percent. AfD has roughly doubled its 9.1 percent share from the 2023 repeat election, reflecting broader national gains on immigration and economic issues, yet it has not sustained the 19 percent peak seen in a July INSA poll. A recent power outage drew limited backlash across parties and has not altered the trajectory. Traders assign “Under 17 percent” a 60.5 percent implied probability because current surveys cluster near the threshold, Berlin’s urban demographics historically cap AfD performance relative to eastern states, and no late catalyst has emerged to push the party decisively above 17–18 percent with the vote less than a month away.