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CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)

icon for CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)

CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)

NEU
Polymarket
NEU

Mike Thompson

$2,646 Vol.

85%

Eric Jones

$338 Vol.

17%

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Thompson holds a modest edge in the CA-04 general election market following the June 2 top-two primary, where the incumbent Democrat secured 41% and challenger Eric Jones advanced with 22% amid a field that included multiple Republicans. California's nonpartisan primary system and recent redistricting under Proposition 50 have produced an all-Democratic November matchup in a district that now incorporates more rural, traditionally conservative territory from counties such as Placer, Sutter, and Yuba. Jones, a younger former venture capitalist with progressive endorsements and youth-mobilization backing, has positioned the contest around generational change and turnout, while Thompson emphasizes his long record and moderate profile. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over how the altered electorate will respond to these intra-party dynamics ahead of the November 3 vote.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$2,984
Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Thompson holds a modest edge in the CA-04 general election market following the June 2 top-two primary, where the incumbent Democrat secured 41% and challenger Eric Jones advanced with 22% amid a field that included multiple Republicans. California's nonpartisan primary system and recent redistricting under Proposition 50 have produced an all-Democratic November matchup in a district that now incorporates more rural, traditionally conservative territory from counties such as Placer, Sutter, and Yuba. Jones, a younger former venture capitalist with progressive endorsements and youth-mobilization backing, has positioned the contest around generational change and turnout, while Thompson emphasizes his long record and moderate profile. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over how the altered electorate will respond to these intra-party dynamics ahead of the November 3 vote.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$2,984
Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Häufig gestellte Fragen

„CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Mike Thompson" mit 85%, gefolgt von „Eric Jones" mit 17%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 85¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 85% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Jul 6, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 2 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)" ist „Mike Thompson" mit 85%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 85% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Eric Jones" mit 17%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.