Incumbent Mike Thompson leads trader consensus at 72.5% in the CA-04 House race due to his strong primary performance and long tenure representing the district since 1999. The June 2, 2026, top-two primary advanced Thompson (41%) and challenger Eric Jones (22%) over Republican Raymond Riehle (21%), confirming a Democratic general election matchup on November 3 in a solidly blue district redrawn under Proposition 50. Jones trails at 24% amid Thompson’s established endorsements from figures including Gavin Newsom and Nancy Pelosi, plus superior name recognition and fundraising. Other listed outcomes at 50% reflect limited viability for non-advancing candidates or write-ins, with no major developments since the primary shifting positioning. The district’s Democratic lean and Thompson’s incumbency advantage anchor current pricing ahead of the general election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNEU
NEU
4. Nov. 2026
Mike Thompson
73%
Eric Jones
26%
NEU
NEU
4. Nov. 2026
Mike Thompson
$6,690 Vol.
73%
Eric Jones
$2,033 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Thompson leads trader consensus at 72.5% in the CA-04 House race due to his strong primary performance and long tenure representing the district since 1999. The June 2, 2026, top-two primary advanced Thompson (41%) and challenger Eric Jones (22%) over Republican Raymond Riehle (21%), confirming a Democratic general election matchup on November 3 in a solidly blue district redrawn under Proposition 50. Jones trails at 24% amid Thompson’s established endorsements from figures including Gavin Newsom and Nancy Pelosi, plus superior name recognition and fundraising. Other listed outcomes at 50% reflect limited viability for non-advancing candidates or write-ins, with no major developments since the primary shifting positioning. The district’s Democratic lean and Thompson’s incumbency advantage anchor current pricing ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volumen
$8,723Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Thompson leads trader consensus at 72.5% in the CA-04 House race due to his strong primary performance and long tenure representing the district since 1999. The June 2, 2026, top-two primary advanced Thompson (41%) and challenger Eric Jones (22%) over Republican Raymond Riehle (21%), confirming a Democratic general election matchup on November 3 in a solidly blue district redrawn under Proposition 50. Jones trails at 24% amid Thompson’s established endorsements from figures including Gavin Newsom and Nancy Pelosi, plus superior name recognition and fundraising. Other listed outcomes at 50% reflect limited viability for non-advancing candidates or write-ins, with no major developments since the primary shifting positioning. The district’s Democratic lean and Thompson’s incumbency advantage anchor current pricing ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$8,723Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Mike Thompson leads trader consensus at 72.5% in the CA-04 House race due to his strong primary performance and long tenure representing the district since 1999. The June 2, 2026, top-two primary advanced Thompson (41%) and challenger Eric Jones (22%) over Republican Raymond Riehle (21%), confirming a Democratic general election matchup on November 3 in a solidly blue district redrawn under Proposition 50. Jones trails at 24% amid Thompson’s established endorsements from figures including Gavin Newsom and Nancy Pelosi, plus superior name recognition and fundraising. Other listed outcomes at 50% reflect limited viability for non-advancing candidates or write-ins, with no major developments since the primary shifting positioning. The district’s Democratic lean and Thompson’s incumbency advantage anchor current pricing ahead of the general election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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