Polymarket traders have reached overwhelming consensus at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 140-159 times on X from May 8 12:00 PM ET to May 15 12:00 PM ET, anchored by real-time trackers logging 133 posts as of 9:00 AM ET today after a steady pace of 19 daily average—including a 41-post spike yesterday amid viral critiques of Hollywood's DEI standards and Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" casting controversy. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects his consistent pop culture engagement on culture-war flashpoints, with historical patterns showing rare deviations from such projections near period ends. Realistic upsets would require an unprecedented 27+ post surge in the final three hours—far exceeding his intraday norms—or a rare oracle recount, though conditions remain locked barring last-minute anomalies.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert140-159 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40–59 <1%
$13,408,024 Vol.
$13,408,024 Vol.
<20
Nein
20-39
Nein
40–59
Nein
60-79
Nein
80-99
Nein
100–119
Nein
120-139
Nein
140-159
Ja
160-179
Nein
180-199
Nein
200-219
Nein
220-239
Nein
240-259
Nein
260-279
Nein
280-299
Nein
300-319
Nein
320-339
Nein
340-359
Nein
360-379
Nein
380-399
Nein
400-419
Nein
420-439
Nein
440-459
Nein
460-479
Nein
480-499
Nein
500+
Nein
140-159 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40–59 <1%
$13,408,024 Vol.
$13,408,024 Vol.
<20
Nein
20-39
Nein
40–59
Nein
60-79
Nein
80-99
Nein
100–119
Nein
120-139
Nein
140-159
Ja
160-179
Nein
180-199
Nein
200-219
Nein
220-239
Nein
240-259
Nein
260-279
Nein
280-299
Nein
300-319
Nein
320-339
Nein
340-359
Nein
360-379
Nein
380-399
Nein
400-419
Nein
420-439
Nein
440-459
Nein
460-479
Nein
480-499
Nein
500+
Nein
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: May 5, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Polymarket traders have reached overwhelming consensus at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 140-159 times on X from May 8 12:00 PM ET to May 15 12:00 PM ET, anchored by real-time trackers logging 133 posts as of 9:00 AM ET today after a steady pace of 19 daily average—including a 41-post spike yesterday amid viral critiques of Hollywood's DEI standards and Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" casting controversy. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects his consistent pop culture engagement on culture-war flashpoints, with historical patterns showing rare deviations from such projections near period ends. Realistic upsets would require an unprecedented 27+ post surge in the final three hours—far exceeding his intraday norms—or a rare oracle recount, though conditions remain locked barring last-minute anomalies.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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