Trader consensus on Polymarket gives an implied 89.5% probability to Gemini 3.2 releasing on May 19, driven by leaks and testing signals aligning with Google I/O's keynote date that day. Recent developments include brief appearances of Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini app for select users around May 5, updated model entries on LMSYS Arena leaderboards, and deprecation notices for older Flash variants hinting at imminent upgrades. Internal testing of checkpoints like Ajax and Hercules, plus iOS previews of enhanced reasoning toggles, have fueled optimism for improved tool calling and efficiency rivaling GPT-5.5. While no official announcement confirms the timeline, historical I/O patterns for AI model launches—such as Gemini 3.1 Pro in February—bolster the May 19 lead, with minor odds on adjacent dates like May 18 or 20 accounting for pre- or post-keynote rollout. Delays remain possible given typical pre-release tuning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMay 19 90%
May 18 2.7%
May 20 2.6%
May 22 2.1%
$258,706 Vol.
$258,706 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
May 12
<1%
May 13
<1%
May 14
<1%
May 15
<1%
May 16
<1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
3%
May 19
90%
May 20
3%
May 21
2%
May 22
2%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
<1%
May 26
<1%
May 27
<1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
2%
May 19 90%
May 18 2.7%
May 20 2.6%
May 22 2.1%
$258,706 Vol.
$258,706 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
May 12
$8,126 Vol.
<1%
May 13
$3,373 Vol.
<1%
May 14
$3,770 Vol.
<1%
May 15
$7,144 Vol.
<1%
May 16
$6,108 Vol.
<1%
May 17
$8,083 Vol.
<1%
May 18
$33,527 Vol.
3%
May 19
$94,671 Vol.
90%
May 20
$14,592 Vol.
3%
May 21
$9,264 Vol.
2%
May 22
$10,686 Vol.
2%
May 23
$3,483 Vol.
<1%
May 24
$3,950 Vol.
<1%
May 25
$2,137 Vol.
<1%
May 26
$3,050 Vol.
<1%
May 27
$2,645 Vol.
<1%
May 28
$2,014 Vol.
<1%
May 29
$1,605 Vol.
<1%
May 30
$5,620 Vol.
<1%
May 31
$5,006 Vol.
<1%
No release by May 31
$11,104 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives an implied 89.5% probability to Gemini 3.2 releasing on May 19, driven by leaks and testing signals aligning with Google I/O's keynote date that day. Recent developments include brief appearances of Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini app for select users around May 5, updated model entries on LMSYS Arena leaderboards, and deprecation notices for older Flash variants hinting at imminent upgrades. Internal testing of checkpoints like Ajax and Hercules, plus iOS previews of enhanced reasoning toggles, have fueled optimism for improved tool calling and efficiency rivaling GPT-5.5. While no official announcement confirms the timeline, historical I/O patterns for AI model launches—such as Gemini 3.1 Pro in February—bolster the May 19 lead, with minor odds on adjacent dates like May 18 or 20 accounting for pre- or post-keynote rollout. Delays remain possible given typical pre-release tuning.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volumen
$258,706Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives an implied 89.5% probability to Gemini 3.2 releasing on May 19, driven by leaks and testing signals aligning with Google I/O's keynote date that day. Recent developments include brief appearances of Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini app for select users around May 5, updated model entries on LMSYS Arena leaderboards, and deprecation notices for older Flash variants hinting at imminent upgrades. Internal testing of checkpoints like Ajax and Hercules, plus iOS previews of enhanced reasoning toggles, have fueled optimism for improved tool calling and efficiency rivaling GPT-5.5. While no official announcement confirms the timeline, historical I/O patterns for AI model launches—such as Gemini 3.1 Pro in February—bolster the May 19 lead, with minor odds on adjacent dates like May 18 or 20 accounting for pre- or post-keynote rollout. Delays remain possible given typical pre-release tuning.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$258,706Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives an implied 89.5% probability to Gemini 3.2 releasing on May 19, driven by leaks and testing signals aligning with Google I/O's keynote date that day. Recent developments include brief appearances of Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini app for select users around May 5, updated model entries on LMSYS Arena leaderboards, and deprecation notices for older Flash variants hinting at imminent upgrades. Internal testing of checkpoints like Ajax and Hercules, plus iOS previews of enhanced reasoning toggles, have fueled optimism for improved tool calling and efficiency rivaling GPT-5.5. While no official announcement confirms the timeline, historical I/O patterns for AI model launches—such as Gemini 3.1 Pro in February—bolster the May 19 lead, with minor odds on adjacent dates like May 18 or 20 accounting for pre- or post-keynote rollout. Delays remain possible given typical pre-release tuning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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