**The absence of Phase 3 clinical trials for any hantavirus vaccine candidate drives the strong 88.5% market-implied probability for "No" by year-end, reflecting trader consensus on regulatory timelines amid CDC and WHO confirmation of no licensed vaccines worldwide.** A recent Andes virus outbreak on cruise ship MV Hondius—eight cases (six confirmed), three deaths as of May 8—has spurred preclinical efforts like Moderna's mRNA platform and University of Bath's glycoprotein vaccine nearing Phase 1, but hantavirus pulmonary syndrome's rarity (under 1,000 global cases yearly) hampers large efficacy studies. Historical Phase 1/2a trials for Andes and Hantaan DNA vaccines stalled years ago without advancement. Upcoming forecast updates from WHO and potential Phase 1 initiations offer no path to approval in the next seven months absent Warp Speed-scale intervention.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHantavirus vaccine in 2026?
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
$79,467 Vol.
$79,467 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
$79,467 Vol.
$79,467 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The absence of Phase 3 clinical trials for any hantavirus vaccine candidate drives the strong 88.5% market-implied probability for "No" by year-end, reflecting trader consensus on regulatory timelines amid CDC and WHO confirmation of no licensed vaccines worldwide.** A recent Andes virus outbreak on cruise ship MV Hondius—eight cases (six confirmed), three deaths as of May 8—has spurred preclinical efforts like Moderna's mRNA platform and University of Bath's glycoprotein vaccine nearing Phase 1, but hantavirus pulmonary syndrome's rarity (under 1,000 global cases yearly) hampers large efficacy studies. Historical Phase 1/2a trials for Andes and Hantaan DNA vaccines stalled years ago without advancement. Upcoming forecast updates from WHO and potential Phase 1 initiations offer no path to approval in the next seven months absent Warp Speed-scale intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volumen
$79,467Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The absence of Phase 3 clinical trials for any hantavirus vaccine candidate drives the strong 88.5% market-implied probability for "No" by year-end, reflecting trader consensus on regulatory timelines amid CDC and WHO confirmation of no licensed vaccines worldwide.** A recent Andes virus outbreak on cruise ship MV Hondius—eight cases (six confirmed), three deaths as of May 8—has spurred preclinical efforts like Moderna's mRNA platform and University of Bath's glycoprotein vaccine nearing Phase 1, but hantavirus pulmonary syndrome's rarity (under 1,000 global cases yearly) hampers large efficacy studies. Historical Phase 1/2a trials for Andes and Hantaan DNA vaccines stalled years ago without advancement. Upcoming forecast updates from WHO and potential Phase 1 initiations offer no path to approval in the next seven months absent Warp Speed-scale intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$79,467Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The absence of Phase 3 clinical trials for any hantavirus vaccine candidate drives the strong 88.5% market-implied probability for "No" by year-end, reflecting trader consensus on regulatory timelines amid CDC and WHO confirmation of no licensed vaccines worldwide.** A recent Andes virus outbreak on cruise ship MV Hondius—eight cases (six confirmed), three deaths as of May 8—has spurred preclinical efforts like Moderna's mRNA platform and University of Bath's glycoprotein vaccine nearing Phase 1, but hantavirus pulmonary syndrome's rarity (under 1,000 global cases yearly) hampers large efficacy studies. Historical Phase 1/2a trials for Andes and Hantaan DNA vaccines stalled years ago without advancement. Upcoming forecast updates from WHO and potential Phase 1 initiations offer no path to approval in the next seven months absent Warp Speed-scale intervention.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen