Recent model consensus from global and regional forecasts points to a highest temperature near 18–19°C in Cape Town on July 5, driving the combined 55% market-implied probability on those outcomes amid typical winter variability. South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs highlight a transitional synoptic pattern, with the South Atlantic High providing moderate onshore flow while a weak cold front approaches from the southwest, limiting daytime warming under partly cloudy skies and fresh northwesterly winds. Historical July maxima average 17°C with a standard deviation of roughly 3°C, so the spread across 17–21°C bins reflects uncertainty in exact frontal timing, cloud cover, and localized orographic effects around Table Mountain. Short-range updates from NOAA and ECMWF over the next 48 hours, plus any revisions to sea-surface temperature influences, will likely tighten probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Cape Town on July 5?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 5?
19°C 46%
18°C 27%
20°C 19%
17°C 5%
NEU
NEU
5. Juli 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
5%
18°C
27%
19°C
46%
20°C
19%
21°C
4%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
1%
19°C 46%
18°C 27%
20°C 19%
17°C 5%
NEU
NEU
5. Juli 2026
13°C or below
$31 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$47 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$23 Vol.
1%
16°C
$9 Vol.
3%
17°C
$75 Vol.
5%
18°C
$87 Vol.
27%
19°C
$1,670 Vol.
46%
20°C
$97 Vol.
19%
21°C
$42 Vol.
4%
22°C
$45 Vol.
1%
23°C or higher
$59 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from global and regional forecasts points to a highest temperature near 18–19°C in Cape Town on July 5, driving the combined 55% market-implied probability on those outcomes amid typical winter variability. South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs highlight a transitional synoptic pattern, with the South Atlantic High providing moderate onshore flow while a weak cold front approaches from the southwest, limiting daytime warming under partly cloudy skies and fresh northwesterly winds. Historical July maxima average 17°C with a standard deviation of roughly 3°C, so the spread across 17–21°C bins reflects uncertainty in exact frontal timing, cloud cover, and localized orographic effects around Table Mountain. Short-range updates from NOAA and ECMWF over the next 48 hours, plus any revisions to sea-surface temperature influences, will likely tighten probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volumen
$2,185Enddatum
5. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from global and regional forecasts points to a highest temperature near 18–19°C in Cape Town on July 5, driving the combined 55% market-implied probability on those outcomes amid typical winter variability. South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs highlight a transitional synoptic pattern, with the South Atlantic High providing moderate onshore flow while a weak cold front approaches from the southwest, limiting daytime warming under partly cloudy skies and fresh northwesterly winds. Historical July maxima average 17°C with a standard deviation of roughly 3°C, so the spread across 17–21°C bins reflects uncertainty in exact frontal timing, cloud cover, and localized orographic effects around Table Mountain. Short-range updates from NOAA and ECMWF over the next 48 hours, plus any revisions to sea-surface temperature influences, will likely tighten probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$2,185Enddatum
5. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from global and regional forecasts points to a highest temperature near 18–19°C in Cape Town on July 5, driving the combined 55% market-implied probability on those outcomes amid typical winter variability. South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs highlight a transitional synoptic pattern, with the South Atlantic High providing moderate onshore flow while a weak cold front approaches from the southwest, limiting daytime warming under partly cloudy skies and fresh northwesterly winds. Historical July maxima average 17°C with a standard deviation of roughly 3°C, so the spread across 17–21°C bins reflects uncertainty in exact frontal timing, cloud cover, and localized orographic effects around Table Mountain. Short-range updates from NOAA and ECMWF over the next 48 hours, plus any revisions to sea-surface temperature influences, will likely tighten probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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