Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF highlight a persistent high-pressure ridge and warm-air advection over northern France, positioning 38°C as the leading outcome for Paris’s maximum temperature on August 13 with 42.5% implied probability. Model consensus centers on daytime highs near 37–38°C under mostly clear skies and strong subsidence, consistent with the broader 2026 summer pattern of repeated heatwaves and above-average temperatures. Slight downside risk to 37°C or upside to 39°C reflects minor spread in guidance on boundary-layer mixing and exact advection strength, while probabilities drop sharply outside this range given current conditions. Updated model runs and Météo-France briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Paris am 13. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Paris am 13. August?
38°C 43%
37°C 21%
39°C 15%
36°C 9%
NEU
NEU
13. Aug. 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
4%
36°C
9%
37°C
21%
38°C
43%
39°C
15%
40°C
5%
41°C
2%
42°C or higher
<1%
38°C 43%
37°C 21%
39°C 15%
36°C 9%
NEU
NEU
13. Aug. 2026
32°C or below
$12 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$12 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$12 Vol.
1%
35°C
$8 Vol.
4%
36°C
$25 Vol.
9%
37°C
$0 Vol.
21%
38°C
$105 Vol.
43%
39°C
$20 Vol.
15%
40°C
$9 Vol.
5%
41°C
$15 Vol.
2%
42°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF highlight a persistent high-pressure ridge and warm-air advection over northern France, positioning 38°C as the leading outcome for Paris’s maximum temperature on August 13 with 42.5% implied probability. Model consensus centers on daytime highs near 37–38°C under mostly clear skies and strong subsidence, consistent with the broader 2026 summer pattern of repeated heatwaves and above-average temperatures. Slight downside risk to 37°C or upside to 39°C reflects minor spread in guidance on boundary-layer mixing and exact advection strength, while probabilities drop sharply outside this range given current conditions. Updated model runs and Météo-France briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volumen
$229Enddatum
13. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF highlight a persistent high-pressure ridge and warm-air advection over northern France, positioning 38°C as the leading outcome for Paris’s maximum temperature on August 13 with 42.5% implied probability. Model consensus centers on daytime highs near 37–38°C under mostly clear skies and strong subsidence, consistent with the broader 2026 summer pattern of repeated heatwaves and above-average temperatures. Slight downside risk to 37°C or upside to 39°C reflects minor spread in guidance on boundary-layer mixing and exact advection strength, while probabilities drop sharply outside this range given current conditions. Updated model runs and Météo-France briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$229Enddatum
13. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF highlight a persistent high-pressure ridge and warm-air advection over northern France, positioning 38°C as the leading outcome for Paris’s maximum temperature on August 13 with 42.5% implied probability. Model consensus centers on daytime highs near 37–38°C under mostly clear skies and strong subsidence, consistent with the broader 2026 summer pattern of repeated heatwaves and above-average temperatures. Slight downside risk to 37°C or upside to 39°C reflects minor spread in guidance on boundary-layer mixing and exact advection strength, while probabilities drop sharply outside this range given current conditions. Updated model runs and Météo-France briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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