Météo-France’s latest guidance for August 12 highlights a stable anticyclonic pattern delivering maximum temperatures of 30–35 °C across northern France, with Paris likely near the upper end under largely clear skies. This forecast consensus underpins the market’s strong preference for 35 °C and 36 °C outcomes, reflecting model agreement on daytime heating without significant cloud or precipitation interference. Recent observations of persistent warmth and elevated 850 hPa temperatures have reinforced trader expectations, while the absence of cooling sea breezes or frontal passages keeps probabilities anchored in this narrow range. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs later today, together with the final pre-event sounding, represent the key data points that could still shift implied odds before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Paris am 12. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Paris am 12. August?
35°C 51%
36°C 34%
34°C 9%
37°C 5%
NEU
$12,354 Vol.
NEU
$12,354 Vol.
12. Aug. 2026
29°C oder darunter
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
3%
34°C
9%
35°C
51%
36°C
34%
37°C
5%
38°C
2%
39°C oder höher
<1%
35°C 51%
36°C 34%
34°C 9%
37°C 5%
NEU
$12,354 Vol.
NEU
$12,354 Vol.
12. Aug. 2026
29°C oder darunter
$1,994 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$320 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$861 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$444 Vol.
1%
33°C
$850 Vol.
3%
34°C
$1,379 Vol.
9%
35°C
$2,988 Vol.
51%
36°C
$1,664 Vol.
34%
37°C
$1,018 Vol.
5%
38°C
$481 Vol.
2%
39°C oder höher
$380 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Météo-France’s latest guidance for August 12 highlights a stable anticyclonic pattern delivering maximum temperatures of 30–35 °C across northern France, with Paris likely near the upper end under largely clear skies. This forecast consensus underpins the market’s strong preference for 35 °C and 36 °C outcomes, reflecting model agreement on daytime heating without significant cloud or precipitation interference. Recent observations of persistent warmth and elevated 850 hPa temperatures have reinforced trader expectations, while the absence of cooling sea breezes or frontal passages keeps probabilities anchored in this narrow range. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs later today, together with the final pre-event sounding, represent the key data points that could still shift implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volumen
$12,354Enddatum
12. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Météo-France’s latest guidance for August 12 highlights a stable anticyclonic pattern delivering maximum temperatures of 30–35 °C across northern France, with Paris likely near the upper end under largely clear skies. This forecast consensus underpins the market’s strong preference for 35 °C and 36 °C outcomes, reflecting model agreement on daytime heating without significant cloud or precipitation interference. Recent observations of persistent warmth and elevated 850 hPa temperatures have reinforced trader expectations, while the absence of cooling sea breezes or frontal passages keeps probabilities anchored in this narrow range. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs later today, together with the final pre-event sounding, represent the key data points that could still shift implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$12,354Enddatum
12. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Météo-France’s latest guidance for August 12 highlights a stable anticyclonic pattern delivering maximum temperatures of 30–35 °C across northern France, with Paris likely near the upper end under largely clear skies. This forecast consensus underpins the market’s strong preference for 35 °C and 36 °C outcomes, reflecting model agreement on daytime heating without significant cloud or precipitation interference. Recent observations of persistent warmth and elevated 850 hPa temperatures have reinforced trader expectations, while the absence of cooling sea breezes or frontal passages keeps probabilities anchored in this narrow range. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs later today, together with the final pre-event sounding, represent the key data points that could still shift implied odds before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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