Traders are positioning around 29–31°C for Paris’s July 25 maximum, reflecting the narrow spread typical of short-range ensemble forecasts two days ahead. Official guidance from Météo-France and global models (ECMWF, GFS) currently favors a mostly clear, high-pressure regime that supports afternoon temperatures near or slightly above the July climatological normal of ~25–27°C. Key differentiating factors include boundary-layer mixing depth, any late-day convective cloud development that caps insolation, and the precise timing of warm-air advection from the south. Minor model disagreements on cloud cover or wind speed can shift the expected peak by 1–2°C, producing the tight clustering around 29–30°C while keeping probabilities for 28°C or 32°C+ much lower. Updated runs and satellite observations over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten or shift these odds as the diurnal heating profile becomes clearer.