**Short-term forecast models from MetService and international sources currently point to a daytime maximum near 15°C for Wellington on July 16, 2026, under light southerly to southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover.** Climatologically, July highs average 12–13°C, so this represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with the seasonal outlook from NIWA, which assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures through the period. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 15°C (43.5%) and 16°C (37%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise peak: small differences in frontal timing, insolation, or wind strength can shift the maximum by 1°C. Model consensus favors stabilization around 14–16°C rather than colder outbreaks or unseasonable warmth, with resolution depending on the official MetService observation for the day’s highest temperature. Updated runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Wellington am 16. Juli?
Höchste Temperatur in Wellington am 16. Juli?
15°C 68%
16°C 18%
14°C 5.5%
17°C 4.5%
NEU
$19,356 Vol.
NEU
$19,356 Vol.
16. Juli 2026
10°C oder weniger
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
6%
15°C
68%
16°C
18%
17°C
5%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C oder höher
<1%
15°C 68%
16°C 18%
14°C 5.5%
17°C 4.5%
NEU
$19,356 Vol.
NEU
$19,356 Vol.
16. Juli 2026
10°C oder weniger
$491 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$694 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$617 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,135 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$2,563 Vol.
6%
15°C
$5,124 Vol.
68%
16°C
$4,870 Vol.
18%
17°C
$2,129 Vol.
5%
18°C
$801 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$586 Vol.
<1%
20°C oder höher
$346 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast models from MetService and international sources currently point to a daytime maximum near 15°C for Wellington on July 16, 2026, under light southerly to southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover.**
Climatologically, July highs average 12–13°C, so this represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with the seasonal outlook from NIWA, which assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures through the period. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 15°C (43.5%) and 16°C (37%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise peak: small differences in frontal timing, insolation, or wind strength can shift the maximum by 1°C.
Model consensus favors stabilization around 14–16°C rather than colder outbreaks or unseasonable warmth, with resolution depending on the official MetService observation for the day’s highest temperature. Updated runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$19,356Enddatum
16. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast models from MetService and international sources currently point to a daytime maximum near 15°C for Wellington on July 16, 2026, under light southerly to southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover.**
Climatologically, July highs average 12–13°C, so this represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with the seasonal outlook from NIWA, which assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures through the period. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 15°C (43.5%) and 16°C (37%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise peak: small differences in frontal timing, insolation, or wind strength can shift the maximum by 1°C.
Model consensus favors stabilization around 14–16°C rather than colder outbreaks or unseasonable warmth, with resolution depending on the official MetService observation for the day’s highest temperature. Updated runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$19,356Enddatum
16. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Short-term forecast models from MetService and international sources currently point to a daytime maximum near 15°C for Wellington on July 16, 2026, under light southerly to southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover.** Climatologically, July highs average 12–13°C, so this represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with the seasonal outlook from NIWA, which assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures through the period. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 15°C (43.5%) and 16°C (37%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise peak: small differences in frontal timing, insolation, or wind strength can shift the maximum by 1°C. Model consensus favors stabilization around 14–16°C rather than colder outbreaks or unseasonable warmth, with resolution depending on the official MetService observation for the day’s highest temperature. Updated runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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