**Trader consensus favors fewer than five posts from the Khamenei official accounts during August 11–18, 2026 (53.5% implied probability), followed by the 5–9 range (34.0%).** This positioning reflects the accounts’ established pattern of infrequent new content, with recent activity limited to occasional reposts of older statements on themes such as Arbaeen, resistance, and martyrdom. Mojtaba Khamenei’s consolidation of authority as Supreme Leader, including reported efforts to influence the Supreme National Security Council and manage relations with President Pezeshkian amid U.S. talks, appears to prioritize institutional control over high-volume public messaging. Historical posting frequency on @khamenei_ir and @MKhamenei_ir—often clustered around major events or religious observances—supports expectations of low volume in the coming window absent an acute escalation or scheduled address.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKhamenei # posts 11. August - 18. August 2026?
Khamenei # posts 11. August - 18. August 2026?
50-54 63%
55-59 63%
<5 55%
45-49 47%
NEU
NEU
18. Aug. 2026
<5
55%
5-9
31%
10-14
27%
15-19
27%
20-24
27%
25-29
25%
30-34
27%
35-39
1%
40-44
1%
45-49
47%
50-54
63%
55-59
63%
60+
1%
50-54 63%
55-59 63%
<5 55%
45-49 47%
NEU
NEU
18. Aug. 2026
<5
$268 Vol.
55%
5-9
$0 Vol.
31%
10-14
$0 Vol.
27%
15-19
$0 Vol.
27%
20-24
$10 Vol.
27%
25-29
$50 Vol.
25%
30-34
$10 Vol.
27%
35-39
$22 Vol.
1%
40-44
$22 Vol.
1%
45-49
$24 Vol.
47%
50-54
$12 Vol.
63%
55-59
$17 Vol.
63%
60+
$20 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 11, 12:00 PM ET and August 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus favors fewer than five posts from the Khamenei official accounts during August 11–18, 2026 (53.5% implied probability), followed by the 5–9 range (34.0%).** This positioning reflects the accounts’ established pattern of infrequent new content, with recent activity limited to occasional reposts of older statements on themes such as Arbaeen, resistance, and martyrdom. Mojtaba Khamenei’s consolidation of authority as Supreme Leader, including reported efforts to influence the Supreme National Security Council and manage relations with President Pezeshkian amid U.S. talks, appears to prioritize institutional control over high-volume public messaging. Historical posting frequency on @khamenei_ir and @MKhamenei_ir—often clustered around major events or religious observances—supports expectations of low volume in the coming window absent an acute escalation or scheduled address.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 11, 12:00 PM ET and August 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volumen
$455Enddatum
18. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 11, 12:00 PM ET and August 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus favors fewer than five posts from the Khamenei official accounts during August 11–18, 2026 (53.5% implied probability), followed by the 5–9 range (34.0%).** This positioning reflects the accounts’ established pattern of infrequent new content, with recent activity limited to occasional reposts of older statements on themes such as Arbaeen, resistance, and martyrdom. Mojtaba Khamenei’s consolidation of authority as Supreme Leader, including reported efforts to influence the Supreme National Security Council and manage relations with President Pezeshkian amid U.S. talks, appears to prioritize institutional control over high-volume public messaging. Historical posting frequency on @khamenei_ir and @MKhamenei_ir—often clustered around major events or religious observances—supports expectations of low volume in the coming window absent an acute escalation or scheduled address.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 11, 12:00 PM ET and August 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$455Enddatum
18. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus favors fewer than five posts from the Khamenei official accounts during August 11–18, 2026 (53.5% implied probability), followed by the 5–9 range (34.0%).** This positioning reflects the accounts’ established pattern of infrequent new content, with recent activity limited to occasional reposts of older statements on themes such as Arbaeen, resistance, and martyrdom. Mojtaba Khamenei’s consolidation of authority as Supreme Leader, including reported efforts to influence the Supreme National Security Council and manage relations with President Pezeshkian amid U.S. talks, appears to prioritize institutional control over high-volume public messaging. Historical posting frequency on @khamenei_ir and @MKhamenei_ir—often clustered around major events or religious observances—supports expectations of low volume in the coming window absent an acute escalation or scheduled address.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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