Trader consensus reflects a tight contest between fewer than five and five-to-nine posts by Ayatollah Khamenei for the week of May 15-22, driven by his irregular schedule of official statements on foreign policy and regional security matters. Recent diplomatic engagements and routine addresses to domestic institutions have produced only modest activity so far, consistent with periods of steady but unexceptional visibility. Market pricing incorporates the potential for additional communications if bilateral talks or internal policy developments accelerate in the remaining days, while historical patterns show that absent major crises or high-profile summits, weekly volumes often remain in the lower ranges. This balance captures traders' assessment of baseline frequency against any late-week catalysts.