Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a razor-thin contest between 15°C (33%) and 16°C (30%) for Seoul's May 15 lowest temperature, reflecting tight clustering in ECMWF and GFS ensemble models alongside Korea Meteorological Administration medium-range guidance projecting overnight minimums near 15°C amid a 1-2°C spread. Clear skies and light winds on May 14 promote radiative cooling after daytime highs near 26-28°C, but southerly maritime air from the Yellow Sea and Seoul's urban heat island effect temper deeper drops, favoring the warmer end of historical mid-May lows (median 14-15°C at Seoul Central Observatory). Recent spring 2026 warming trends reinforce this positioning; KMA short-range updates through evening will sharpen the outlook before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Seoul am 15. Mai?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Seoul am 15. Mai?
15°C 34%
16°C 32%
14°C 10%
13°C 3.8%
11°C oder niedriger
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
4%
14°C
10%
15°C
34%
16°C
32%
17°C
3%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C oder höher
<1%
15°C 34%
16°C 32%
14°C 10%
13°C 3.8%
11°C oder niedriger
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
4%
14°C
10%
15°C
34%
16°C
32%
17°C
3%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a razor-thin contest between 15°C (33%) and 16°C (30%) for Seoul's May 15 lowest temperature, reflecting tight clustering in ECMWF and GFS ensemble models alongside Korea Meteorological Administration medium-range guidance projecting overnight minimums near 15°C amid a 1-2°C spread. Clear skies and light winds on May 14 promote radiative cooling after daytime highs near 26-28°C, but southerly maritime air from the Yellow Sea and Seoul's urban heat island effect temper deeper drops, favoring the warmer end of historical mid-May lows (median 14-15°C at Seoul Central Observatory). Recent spring 2026 warming trends reinforce this positioning; KMA short-range updates through evening will sharpen the outlook before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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