Korea Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensembles currently cluster Seoul’s overnight low for May 17 near 14–15 °C under a stable high-pressure ridge that favors clear skies and efficient radiative cooling. Light winds below 3 m/s overnight enhance surface heat loss, while the urban heat island effect from Seoul’s dense built environment tempers deeper cooling. Model spread remains the dominant uncertainty: slightly stronger southerly flow or any residual cloud cover could lift the minimum to 16 °C, whereas a brief pulse of cooler continental air would favor 13 °C. Mid-May climatology from the Seoul Central Observatory places typical minima between 12 °C and 16 °C, so traders are pricing the narrow window between the two leading outcomes almost equally. Updated KMA guidance tonight will narrow the final range before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Seoul am 17. Mai?
14°C 36%
15°C 31%
16°C 11%
13°C 7.3%
12°C oder weniger
4%
13°C
7%
14°C
32%
15°C
31%
16°C
11%
17°C
3%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C oder höher
<1%
14°C 36%
15°C 31%
16°C 11%
13°C 7.3%
12°C oder weniger
4%
13°C
7%
14°C
32%
15°C
31%
16°C
11%
17°C
3%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIKorea Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensembles currently cluster Seoul’s overnight low for May 17 near 14–15 °C under a stable high-pressure ridge that favors clear skies and efficient radiative cooling. Light winds below 3 m/s overnight enhance surface heat loss, while the urban heat island effect from Seoul’s dense built environment tempers deeper cooling. Model spread remains the dominant uncertainty: slightly stronger southerly flow or any residual cloud cover could lift the minimum to 16 °C, whereas a brief pulse of cooler continental air would favor 13 °C. Mid-May climatology from the Seoul Central Observatory places typical minima between 12 °C and 16 °C, so traders are pricing the narrow window between the two leading outcomes almost equally. Updated KMA guidance tonight will narrow the final range before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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