Trader consensus prices an 89% implied probability against a magnitude 8.0+ megaquake by June 30, driven by USGS data confirming zero such events worldwide through mid-May 2026—consistent with historical averages of roughly one M8+ quake annually, despite monitoring across high-risk subduction zones like Japan's Nankai Trough, Cascadia, and southern Chile. Recent seismic swarms in California and moderate activity off Taiwan and Japan (largest M5.8) show no foreshock patterns or strain anomalies signaling escalation, while Japan's April post-M7.7 advisory pegged Nankai short-term risk at just 1%. Inherent unpredictability persists, but continuous USGS real-time feeds and model consensus underpin the low-yes pricing, with resolution tied to verified epicenter data before June 30 UTC.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMegabeben bis zum 30. Juni?
Megabeben bis zum 30. Juni?
Ja
$66,081 Vol.
$66,081 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Ja
$66,081 Vol.
$66,081 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices an 89% implied probability against a magnitude 8.0+ megaquake by June 30, driven by USGS data confirming zero such events worldwide through mid-May 2026—consistent with historical averages of roughly one M8+ quake annually, despite monitoring across high-risk subduction zones like Japan's Nankai Trough, Cascadia, and southern Chile. Recent seismic swarms in California and moderate activity off Taiwan and Japan (largest M5.8) show no foreshock patterns or strain anomalies signaling escalation, while Japan's April post-M7.7 advisory pegged Nankai short-term risk at just 1%. Inherent unpredictability persists, but continuous USGS real-time feeds and model consensus underpin the low-yes pricing, with resolution tied to verified epicenter data before June 30 UTC.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volumen
$66,081Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices an 89% implied probability against a magnitude 8.0+ megaquake by June 30, driven by USGS data confirming zero such events worldwide through mid-May 2026—consistent with historical averages of roughly one M8+ quake annually, despite monitoring across high-risk subduction zones like Japan's Nankai Trough, Cascadia, and southern Chile. Recent seismic swarms in California and moderate activity off Taiwan and Japan (largest M5.8) show no foreshock patterns or strain anomalies signaling escalation, while Japan's April post-M7.7 advisory pegged Nankai short-term risk at just 1%. Inherent unpredictability persists, but continuous USGS real-time feeds and model consensus underpin the low-yes pricing, with resolution tied to verified epicenter data before June 30 UTC.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$66,081Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 89% implied probability against a magnitude 8.0+ megaquake by June 30, driven by USGS data confirming zero such events worldwide through mid-May 2026—consistent with historical averages of roughly one M8+ quake annually, despite monitoring across high-risk subduction zones like Japan's Nankai Trough, Cascadia, and southern Chile. Recent seismic swarms in California and moderate activity off Taiwan and Japan (largest M5.8) show no foreshock patterns or strain anomalies signaling escalation, while Japan's April post-M7.7 advisory pegged Nankai short-term risk at just 1%. Inherent unpredictability persists, but continuous USGS real-time feeds and model consensus underpin the low-yes pricing, with resolution tied to verified epicenter data before June 30 UTC.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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