Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 92% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater worldwide—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events, occurring roughly once per year globally based on historical USGS records spanning subduction zones like Nankai Trough, Japan Trench, and Cascadia. A magnitude 7.7 offshore Japan quake on April 20 prompted a brief government advisory elevating short-term risk to about 1% for a follow-on M8+, but seismic activity normalized without escalation, as confirmed by ongoing USGS monitoring showing steady global patterns with no unusual foreshocks or strain buildup. While earthquakes remain unpredictable, realistic challenges include sudden megathrust rupture amid current quiet conditions; watch USGS real-time feeds for any shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMegabeben bis zum 30. Juni?
Megabeben bis zum 30. Juni?
Ja
$66,081 Vol.
$66,081 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Ja
$66,081 Vol.
$66,081 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 92% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater worldwide—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events, occurring roughly once per year globally based on historical USGS records spanning subduction zones like Nankai Trough, Japan Trench, and Cascadia. A magnitude 7.7 offshore Japan quake on April 20 prompted a brief government advisory elevating short-term risk to about 1% for a follow-on M8+, but seismic activity normalized without escalation, as confirmed by ongoing USGS monitoring showing steady global patterns with no unusual foreshocks or strain buildup. While earthquakes remain unpredictable, realistic challenges include sudden megathrust rupture amid current quiet conditions; watch USGS real-time feeds for any shifts ahead of resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volumen
$66,081Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 92% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater worldwide—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events, occurring roughly once per year globally based on historical USGS records spanning subduction zones like Nankai Trough, Japan Trench, and Cascadia. A magnitude 7.7 offshore Japan quake on April 20 prompted a brief government advisory elevating short-term risk to about 1% for a follow-on M8+, but seismic activity normalized without escalation, as confirmed by ongoing USGS monitoring showing steady global patterns with no unusual foreshocks or strain buildup. While earthquakes remain unpredictable, realistic challenges include sudden megathrust rupture amid current quiet conditions; watch USGS real-time feeds for any shifts ahead of resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$66,081Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 92% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater worldwide—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events, occurring roughly once per year globally based on historical USGS records spanning subduction zones like Nankai Trough, Japan Trench, and Cascadia. A magnitude 7.7 offshore Japan quake on April 20 prompted a brief government advisory elevating short-term risk to about 1% for a follow-on M8+, but seismic activity normalized without escalation, as confirmed by ongoing USGS monitoring showing steady global patterns with no unusual foreshocks or strain buildup. While earthquakes remain unpredictable, realistic challenges include sudden megathrust rupture amid current quiet conditions; watch USGS real-time feeds for any shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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