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Politik·Australien

Nächster Premierminister von Victoria

icon for Nächster Premierminister von Victoria
Politik·Australien

Nächster Premierminister von Victoria

Jess Wilson 64%

Ben Carroll 19%

Jacinta Allan 5.3%

Warren Pickering 5%

Polymarket
NEU

Jess Wilson 64%

Ben Carroll 19%

Jacinta Allan 5.3%

Warren Pickering 5%

Polymarket
NEU
icon for Jess Wilson

Jess Wilson

$899 Vol.

64%

icon for Ben Carroll

Ben Carroll

$604 Vol.

19%

icon for Jacinta Allan

Jacinta Allan

$192 Vol.

5%

icon for Warren Pickering

Warren Pickering

$50 Vol.

5%

icon for Brad Battin

Brad Battin

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for Sam Groth

Sam Groth

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for James Newbury

James Newbury

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for Emma Kealy

Emma Kealy

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for Sonya Kilkenny

Sonya Kilkenny

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for Steve Dimopoulos

Steve Dimopoulos

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for Danny O'Brien

Danny O'Brien

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for Jaclyn Symes

Jaclyn Symes

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for David Southwick

David Southwick

$50 Vol.

3%

icon for Gabrielle Williams

Gabrielle Williams

$50 Vol.

3%

icon for Ellen Sandell

Ellen Sandell

$100 Vol.

3%

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jess Wilson leads the market at 63.5% as Liberal Opposition Leader ahead of the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election, where recent DemosAU polling shows the Coalition ahead on a two-party preferred basis and Wilson preferred as premier over incumbent Ben Carroll. Carroll assumed the premiership in late July 2026 following a Labor leadership spill that ousted Jacinta Allan amid declining support and integrity concerns in the construction sector, with Carroll immediately launching a royal commission into the industry. Labor’s primary vote has edged up modestly under the new leader but remains well behind the Coalition, while One Nation’s regional strength adds fragmentation. Lower-priced Labor figures such as Carroll, Allan, and ministers like Sonya Kilkenny or Jaclyn Symes reflect internal party dynamics and limited prospects of retaining government.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,745
Enddatum
28. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 27, 2026, 8:24 AM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.vic.gov.au/premier

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jess Wilson leads the market at 63.5% as Liberal Opposition Leader ahead of the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election, where recent DemosAU polling shows the Coalition ahead on a two-party preferred basis and Wilson preferred as premier over incumbent Ben Carroll. Carroll assumed the premiership in late July 2026 following a Labor leadership spill that ousted Jacinta Allan amid declining support and integrity concerns in the construction sector, with Carroll immediately launching a royal commission into the industry. Labor’s primary vote has edged up modestly under the new leader but remains well behind the Coalition, while One Nation’s regional strength adds fragmentation. Lower-priced Labor figures such as Carroll, Allan, and ministers like Sonya Kilkenny or Jaclyn Symes reflect internal party dynamics and limited prospects of retaining government.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,745
Enddatum
28. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 27, 2026, 8:24 AM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.vic.gov.au/premier

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Verwandte

icon for Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?

Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?

77%
icon for Wird Marianne Alto die Bürgermeisterwahl 2026 in Victoria gewinnen?

Wird Marianne Alto die Bürgermeisterwahl 2026 in Victoria gewinnen?

91%
Ja
icon for Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?

Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?

73%

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Nächster Premierminister von Victoria" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 15 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Jess Wilson" mit 64%, gefolgt von „Ben Carroll" mit 19%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 64¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 64% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Nächster Premierminister von Victoria" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 27, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Nächster Premierminister von Victoria" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 15 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Nächster Premierminister von Victoria" ist „Jess Wilson" mit 64%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 64% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Ben Carroll" mit 19%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Nächster Premierminister von Victoria" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.