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Politik·Midterms

NJ-10 House Election Margin of Victory

icon for NJ-10 House Election Margin of Victory
Politik·Midterms

NJ-10 House Election Margin of Victory

Demokrat 75 %+ 37%

Demokrat 70-75 % 37%

Demokrat 65–70% 37%

Demokrat 60-65% 37%

Polymarket
NEU

Demokrat 75 %+ 37%

Demokrat 70-75 % 37%

Demokrat 65–70% 37%

Demokrat 60-65% 37%

Polymarket
NEU
icon for Demokrat 75 %+

Demokrat 75 %+

$0 Vol.

37%

icon for Demokrat 70-75 %

Demokrat 70-75 %

$0 Vol.

37%

icon for Demokrat 65–70%

Demokrat 65–70%

$0 Vol.

37%

icon for Demokrat 60-65%

Demokrat 60-65%

$0 Vol.

37%

icon for Demokrat 55-60%

Demokrat 55-60%

$0 Vol.

37%

icon for Demokrat 50-55%

Demokrat 50-55%

$0 Vol.

37%

icon for Demokrat 45-50%

Demokrat 45-50%

$0 Vol.

37%

icon for Demokrat 35-45 %

Demokrat 35-45 %

$0 Vol.

37%

icon for Demokrat 0-35%

Demokrat 0-35%

$0 Vol.

37%

icon for Republikaner gewinnt

Republikaner gewinnt

$0 Vol.

37%

The 2026 NJ-10 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-10 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NJ-10 remains a heavily Democratic seat centered in urban areas including Newark, where incumbent LaMonica McIver secured the nomination after prevailing in the June 2026 primary. The Republican nominee, Carmen Bucco, faces structural headwinds in a district that has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Trader pricing across margin buckets and the Republican-win outcome shows roughly even implied probabilities, reflecting uncertainty over turnout patterns, any late-cycle national tailwinds, and whether the challenger can improve on historical Republican performance. No major developments in the past month have shifted the race's fundamentals, leaving the exact margin dependent on voter mobilization and broader midterm dynamics through November.

The 2026 NJ-10 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-10 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 11, 2026, 2:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 NJ-10 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-10 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 NJ-10 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-10 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NJ-10 remains a heavily Democratic seat centered in urban areas including Newark, where incumbent LaMonica McIver secured the nomination after prevailing in the June 2026 primary. The Republican nominee, Carmen Bucco, faces structural headwinds in a district that has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Trader pricing across margin buckets and the Republican-win outcome shows roughly even implied probabilities, reflecting uncertainty over turnout patterns, any late-cycle national tailwinds, and whether the challenger can improve on historical Republican performance. No major developments in the past month have shifted the race's fundamentals, leaving the exact margin dependent on voter mobilization and broader midterm dynamics through November.

The 2026 NJ-10 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-10 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 11, 2026, 2:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 NJ-10 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-10 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Verwandte

icon for Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus 2026 in NJ-07 mit 18 % oder mehr gewinnen?

Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus 2026 in NJ-07 mit 18 % oder mehr gewinnen?

37%
Ja
icon for Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus im Bezirk NJ-06 im Jahr 2026 mit 40 % oder mehr Vorsprung gewinnen?

Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus im Bezirk NJ-06 im Jahr 2026 mit 40 % oder mehr Vorsprung gewinnen?

37%
Ja
icon for Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus im Wahlkreis NJ-11 im Jahr 2026 mit 35 % oder mehr gewinnen?

Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus im Wahlkreis NJ-11 im Jahr 2026 mit 35 % oder mehr gewinnen?

37%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„NJ-10 House Election Margin of Victory" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 10 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Demokrat 75 %+" mit 37%, gefolgt von „Demokrat 70-75 %" mit 37%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 37¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 37% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„NJ-10 House Election Margin of Victory" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 11, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „NJ-10 House Election Margin of Victory" ist „Demokrat 75 %+" mit 37%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 37% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Demokrat 70-75 %" mit 37%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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