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Politik·Mamdani

NY-13 Demokratische Primärmarge des Sieges

icon for NY-13 Demokratische Primärmarge des Sieges
Politik·Mamdani

NY-13 Demokratische Primärmarge des Sieges

Avila Chevalier <5% 98.0%

Avila Chevalier 5–10% 2.2%

Avila Chevalier 10%+ 1.9%

Anderes <1%

Polymarket

$89,876 Vol.

Avila Chevalier <5% 98.0%

Avila Chevalier 5–10% 2.2%

Avila Chevalier 10%+ 1.9%

Anderes <1%

Polymarket

$89,876 Vol.

Avila Chevalier 10%+

$5,981 Vol.

2%

Avila Chevalier 5–10%

$7,521 Vol.

2%

Avila Chevalier <5%

$21,909 Vol.

98%

Anderes

$2,194 Vol.

<1%

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Darializa Avila Chevalier's narrow Democratic primary win over incumbent Adriano Espaillat on June 23, 2026, produced a final certified margin of roughly 3.5 percentage points (49.4% to 45.9%), anchoring trader consensus near 98% on a sub-5% outcome. The result reflected Chevalier's strength among younger, college-educated, and higher-income voters in Manhattan alongside Espaillat's edge in lower-income and Hispanic precincts in the Bronx, with limited third-candidate support splitting the remainder. Official tallies across nearly all precincts left little room for adjustment. Recounts, late-arriving absentee or provisional ballots, or successful legal challenges to vote validation could theoretically widen the margin beyond 5%, though historical patterns in New York congressional primaries show such shifts rarely exceed a few hundred votes in districts of this size.

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$89,876
Enddatum
23. Juni 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Darializa Avila Chevalier's narrow Democratic primary win over incumbent Adriano Espaillat on June 23, 2026, produced a final certified margin of roughly 3.5 percentage points (49.4% to 45.9%), anchoring trader consensus near 98% on a sub-5% outcome. The result reflected Chevalier's strength among younger, college-educated, and higher-income voters in Manhattan alongside Espaillat's edge in lower-income and Hispanic precincts in the Bronx, with limited third-candidate support splitting the remainder. Official tallies across nearly all precincts left little room for adjustment. Recounts, late-arriving absentee or provisional ballots, or successful legal challenges to vote validation could theoretically widen the margin beyond 5%, though historical patterns in New York congressional primaries show such shifts rarely exceed a few hundred votes in districts of this size.

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$89,876
Enddatum
23. Juni 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Verwandte

icon for Wird Micah Lasher die NY-12 demokratische Vorwahl mit weniger als 5 % Vorsprung gewinnen?

Wird Micah Lasher die NY-12 demokratische Vorwahl mit weniger als 5 % Vorsprung gewinnen?

98%
Ja
icon for Wird Claire Valdez die demokratische Vorwahl im NY-07 mit mehr als 15 % Vorsprung gewinnen?

Wird Claire Valdez die demokratische Vorwahl im NY-07 mit mehr als 15 % Vorsprung gewinnen?

98%
Ja
icon for Wird Cait Conley die demokratische Vorwahl im NY-17 mit mehr als 15 % Vorsprung gewinnen?

Wird Cait Conley die demokratische Vorwahl im NY-17 mit mehr als 15 % Vorsprung gewinnen?

99%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„NY-13 Demokratische Primärmarge des Sieges" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 7 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Avila Chevalier <5%" mit 98%, gefolgt von „Avila Chevalier 10%+" mit 2%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 98¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 98% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „NY-13 Demokratische Primärmarge des Sieges" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $89.9K generiert, seit der Markt am Jun 18, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „NY-13 Demokratische Primärmarge des Sieges" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 7 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „NY-13 Demokratische Primärmarge des Sieges" ist „Avila Chevalier <5%" mit 98%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 98% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Avila Chevalier 10%+" mit 2%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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