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Politik·Demokratische Partei

NY-07 Demokratische Primärmarge des Sieges

icon for NY-07 Demokratische Primärmarge des Sieges
Politik·Demokratische Partei

NY-07 Demokratische Primärmarge des Sieges

Valdez 15%+ 98.8%

Valdez 10–15 % 2.9%

Anderes <1%

Valdez 5–10 % <1%

Polymarket

$40,286 Vol.

Valdez 15%+ 98.8%

Valdez 10–15 % 2.9%

Anderes <1%

Valdez 5–10 % <1%

Polymarket

$40,286 Vol.

Valdez 15%+

$6,998 Vol.

99%

Valdez 10–15 %

$7,795 Vol.

3%

Valdez 5–10 %

$5,715 Vol.

<1%

Valdez <5%

$6,184 Vol.

<1%

Anderes

$1,410 Vol.

<1%

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-07 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Claire Valdez secured a commanding lead in the June 23, 2026, Democratic primary for New York’s 7th congressional district, finishing with roughly 56 percent of the vote against Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso’s 36 percent. Strong endorsements from Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Senator Bernie Sanders, and progressive networks helped Valdez consolidate support among DSA-aligned and working-class voters in Brooklyn and Queens neighborhoods. Reynoso’s backing from retiring incumbent Nydia Velázquez and Attorney General Letitia James failed to close the gap despite his higher profile. With final certified results still pending, traders assign overwhelming probability to a margin exceeding 15 points, though late shifts in vote counting or legal challenges could theoretically narrow the recorded spread.

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-07 Democratic Primary.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$40,286
Enddatum
23. Juni 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jun 18, 2026, 10:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-07 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-07 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Claire Valdez secured a commanding lead in the June 23, 2026, Democratic primary for New York’s 7th congressional district, finishing with roughly 56 percent of the vote against Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso’s 36 percent. Strong endorsements from Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Senator Bernie Sanders, and progressive networks helped Valdez consolidate support among DSA-aligned and working-class voters in Brooklyn and Queens neighborhoods. Reynoso’s backing from retiring incumbent Nydia Velázquez and Attorney General Letitia James failed to close the gap despite his higher profile. With final certified results still pending, traders assign overwhelming probability to a margin exceeding 15 points, though late shifts in vote counting or legal challenges could theoretically narrow the recorded spread.

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-07 Democratic Primary.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$40,286
Enddatum
23. Juni 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jun 18, 2026, 10:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-07 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Verwandte

icon for Wird Cait Conley die demokratische Vorwahl im NY-17 mit mehr als 15 % Vorsprung gewinnen?

Wird Cait Conley die demokratische Vorwahl im NY-17 mit mehr als 15 % Vorsprung gewinnen?

98%
Ja
icon for Wird Darializa Avila Chevalier die demokratische Vorwahl in NY-13 mit weniger als 5 % gewinnen?

Wird Darializa Avila Chevalier die demokratische Vorwahl in NY-13 mit weniger als 5 % gewinnen?

96%
Ja
icon for Wird Brad Lander die demokratische Vorwahl im NY-10 mit mehr als 30 % Vorsprung gewinnen?

Wird Brad Lander die demokratische Vorwahl im NY-10 mit mehr als 30 % Vorsprung gewinnen?

98%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„NY-07 Demokratische Primärmarge des Sieges" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 7 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Valdez 15%+" mit 99%, gefolgt von „Valdez 10–15 %" mit 1%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 99¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 99% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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