The NY-21 contest remains one of the closest House races following the November 3 general election, with Republican Anthony Constantino holding a narrow lead over Democrat Blake Gendebien as counting reaches 99 percent of precincts. The open seat, created by the departure of longtime incumbent Elise Stefanik, produced a competitive environment marked by shifting race ratings from solid to lean Republican and late polls showing single-digit or tied margins. Strong Democratic performance in several northern counties has offset Republican advantages in enrollment and southern areas, sustaining the slim projected margin. Final ballot certification, outstanding absentee and provisional votes, and any recounts in battleground counties represent the primary factors that could widen or narrow the outcome before market resolution.