Republicans enter the 2026 midterms holding a narrow House majority of roughly 217 seats amid five vacancies, a position that leaves little margin for losses given Democrats' consistent edge in generic ballot polling. Recent redistricting developments in states including Virginia, Tennessee, and Missouri have altered several competitive districts, while historical patterns show the president's party typically loses ground in midterm cycles. These factors, alongside fundraising trends and voter sentiment reflected in national surveys, underpin trader positioning favoring totals below 220 seats, with the widest support clustered around potential net losses of 20 to 30 districts. Key variables that could shift outcomes include primary results, candidate recruitment, and any late-cycle economic or policy shifts before November.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUnter 190 27%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.5%
215-219 11.1%
$234,839 Vol.
$234,839 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Unter 190
27%
190-194
11%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205–209
10%
210-214
9%
215-219
11%
220-224
9%
225-229
3%
230+
2%
Unter 190 27%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.5%
215-219 11.1%
$234,839 Vol.
$234,839 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Unter 190
$17,616 Vol.
27%
190-194
$8,513 Vol.
11%
195-199
$28,129 Vol.
12%
200-204
$22,115 Vol.
12%
205–209
$35,376 Vol.
10%
210-214
$12,841 Vol.
9%
215-219
$8,059 Vol.
11%
220-224
$53,714 Vol.
9%
225-229
$21,391 Vol.
3%
230+
$27,084 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republicans enter the 2026 midterms holding a narrow House majority of roughly 217 seats amid five vacancies, a position that leaves little margin for losses given Democrats' consistent edge in generic ballot polling. Recent redistricting developments in states including Virginia, Tennessee, and Missouri have altered several competitive districts, while historical patterns show the president's party typically loses ground in midterm cycles. These factors, alongside fundraising trends and voter sentiment reflected in national surveys, underpin trader positioning favoring totals below 220 seats, with the widest support clustered around potential net losses of 20 to 30 districts. Key variables that could shift outcomes include primary results, candidate recruitment, and any late-cycle economic or policy shifts before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volumen
$234,839Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republicans enter the 2026 midterms holding a narrow House majority of roughly 217 seats amid five vacancies, a position that leaves little margin for losses given Democrats' consistent edge in generic ballot polling. Recent redistricting developments in states including Virginia, Tennessee, and Missouri have altered several competitive districts, while historical patterns show the president's party typically loses ground in midterm cycles. These factors, alongside fundraising trends and voter sentiment reflected in national surveys, underpin trader positioning favoring totals below 220 seats, with the widest support clustered around potential net losses of 20 to 30 districts. Key variables that could shift outcomes include primary results, candidate recruitment, and any late-cycle economic or policy shifts before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$234,839Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans enter the 2026 midterms holding a narrow House majority of roughly 217 seats amid five vacancies, a position that leaves little margin for losses given Democrats' consistent edge in generic ballot polling. Recent redistricting developments in states including Virginia, Tennessee, and Missouri have altered several competitive districts, while historical patterns show the president's party typically loses ground in midterm cycles. These factors, alongside fundraising trends and voter sentiment reflected in national surveys, underpin trader positioning favoring totals below 220 seats, with the widest support clustered around potential net losses of 20 to 30 districts. Key variables that could shift outcomes include primary results, candidate recruitment, and any late-cycle economic or policy shifts before November.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen