Close competition among frontier labs in agentic capabilities drives the market's tight odds, with Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI clustered near 19-20.5% implied probability for second place by end-October. Recent agent benchmarks show Anthropic's Claude variants leading on SWE-bench and GAIA, while OpenAI's Operator and Codex excel in autonomous workflows, and Google's Gemini agents gain on integration and scale. xAI and Moonshot trail but show momentum in specialized tasks. Key swing factors include September-October model releases, benchmark updates on leaderboards like arena.ai, and any shifts in tool-use reliability or multi-step reasoning performance that could reorder trader consensus ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAlibaba 23.5%
MiniMax 23.3%
OpenAI 21%
Google 21%
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
Alibaba
23%
MiniMax
23%
OpenAI
30%
21%
Anthropic
20%
SpaceXAI
15%
Moonshot
12%
DeepSeek
9%
Xiaomi
7%
ByteDance
5%
Amazon
5%
Meituan
5%
Z.ai
5%
Baidu
4%
Microsoft
4%
Mistral
4%
Nvidia
3%
Meta
32%
Alibaba 23.5%
MiniMax 23.3%
OpenAI 21%
Google 21%
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
Alibaba
$57 Vol.
23%
MiniMax
$143 Vol.
23%
OpenAI
$83 Vol.
30%
$90 Vol.
21%
Anthropic
$190 Vol.
20%
SpaceXAI
$62 Vol.
15%
Moonshot
$57 Vol.
12%
DeepSeek
$124 Vol.
9%
Xiaomi
$57 Vol.
7%
ByteDance
$76 Vol.
5%
Amazon
$145 Vol.
5%
Meituan
$94 Vol.
5%
Z.ai
$94 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$50 Vol.
4%
Microsoft
$57 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$94 Vol.
4%
Nvidia
$103 Vol.
3%
Meta
$58 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Close competition among frontier labs in agentic capabilities drives the market's tight odds, with Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI clustered near 19-20.5% implied probability for second place by end-October. Recent agent benchmarks show Anthropic's Claude variants leading on SWE-bench and GAIA, while OpenAI's Operator and Codex excel in autonomous workflows, and Google's Gemini agents gain on integration and scale. xAI and Moonshot trail but show momentum in specialized tasks. Key swing factors include September-October model releases, benchmark updates on leaderboards like arena.ai, and any shifts in tool-use reliability or multi-step reasoning performance that could reorder trader consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Volumen
$1,633Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Close competition among frontier labs in agentic capabilities drives the market's tight odds, with Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI clustered near 19-20.5% implied probability for second place by end-October. Recent agent benchmarks show Anthropic's Claude variants leading on SWE-bench and GAIA, while OpenAI's Operator and Codex excel in autonomous workflows, and Google's Gemini agents gain on integration and scale. xAI and Moonshot trail but show momentum in specialized tasks. Key swing factors include September-October model releases, benchmark updates on leaderboards like arena.ai, and any shifts in tool-use reliability or multi-step reasoning performance that could reorder trader consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$1,633Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Close competition among frontier labs in agentic capabilities drives the market's tight odds, with Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI clustered near 19-20.5% implied probability for second place by end-October. Recent agent benchmarks show Anthropic's Claude variants leading on SWE-bench and GAIA, while OpenAI's Operator and Codex excel in autonomous workflows, and Google's Gemini agents gain on integration and scale. xAI and Moonshot trail but show momentum in specialized tasks. Key swing factors include September-October model releases, benchmark updates on leaderboards like arena.ai, and any shifts in tool-use reliability or multi-step reasoning performance that could reorder trader consensus ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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