The South African Reserve Bank’s unanimous 25 basis point repo rate hike to 7.25% in September, driven by persistent fuel price shocks from Middle East tensions pushing inflation toward 5%+ later this year, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for the November 19 decision. The bank’s Quarterly Projection Model signals a broadly stable policy rate through year-end amid weak growth (2026 forecast trimmed to 1.2%) and a fragile recovery, outweighing calls for further tightening from some analysts despite a hawkish Fed backdrop. October CPI data due October 21 and Bureau for Economic Research inflation expectations will provide key updates, with the current 72% market-implied probability of no change reflecting this measured, data-dependent stance while leaving room for modest adjustments if oil or rand pressures intensify.