Recent benchmark updates and model releases have created a tightly contested race for third-best AI lab by late November, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra currently lead most intelligence indices and coding benchmarks, shifting focus to contenders differentiated by open-weight access, pricing efficiency, context length, and agentic performance. Meta’s Llama and Muse series, Google’s Gemini 3 updates, and Chinese labs including Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Alibaba’s Qwen models compete on these axes, while safety concerns and calls for paced development add volatility. Further releases or leaderboard shifts before resolution could quickly alter trader consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMeta 35%
Google 21%
Alibaba 14%
Anthropic 9.5%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
Meta
35%
21%
Alibaba
14%
Anthropic
10%
OpenAI
6%
Moonshot
5%
Baidu
4%
ByteDance
4%
Amazon
4%
Nvidia
4%
Z.ai
4%
Microsoft
4%
Xiaomi
3%
SpaceXAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Thinky
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
Tencent
1%
StepFun
1%
Meta 35%
Google 21%
Alibaba 14%
Anthropic 9.5%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
Meta
$808 Vol.
35%
$200 Vol.
21%
Alibaba
$212 Vol.
14%
Anthropic
$127 Vol.
10%
OpenAI
$67 Vol.
6%
Moonshot
$81 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$128 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$75 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$67 Vol.
4%
Nvidia
$67 Vol.
4%
Z.ai
$67 Vol.
4%
Microsoft
$87 Vol.
4%
Xiaomi
$88 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$67 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$61 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$71 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$71 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$61 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$61 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$71 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$61 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent benchmark updates and model releases have created a tightly contested race for third-best AI lab by late November, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra currently lead most intelligence indices and coding benchmarks, shifting focus to contenders differentiated by open-weight access, pricing efficiency, context length, and agentic performance. Meta’s Llama and Muse series, Google’s Gemini 3 updates, and Chinese labs including Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Alibaba’s Qwen models compete on these axes, while safety concerns and calls for paced development add volatility. Further releases or leaderboard shifts before resolution could quickly alter trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ET
Volumen
$2,593Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent benchmark updates and model releases have created a tightly contested race for third-best AI lab by late November, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra currently lead most intelligence indices and coding benchmarks, shifting focus to contenders differentiated by open-weight access, pricing efficiency, context length, and agentic performance. Meta’s Llama and Muse series, Google’s Gemini 3 updates, and Chinese labs including Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Alibaba’s Qwen models compete on these axes, while safety concerns and calls for paced development add volatility. Further releases or leaderboard shifts before resolution could quickly alter trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$2,593Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent benchmark updates and model releases have created a tightly contested race for third-best AI lab by late November, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra currently lead most intelligence indices and coding benchmarks, shifting focus to contenders differentiated by open-weight access, pricing efficiency, context length, and agentic performance. Meta’s Llama and Muse series, Google’s Gemini 3 updates, and Chinese labs including Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Alibaba’s Qwen models compete on these axes, while safety concerns and calls for paced development add volatility. Further releases or leaderboard shifts before resolution could quickly alter trader consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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