The US government’s June 12 export-control directive from the Commerce Department, issued under national security authorities and citing a reported jailbreak vulnerability in the newly released Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, immediately forced Anthropic to disable access worldwide rather than selectively for foreign nationals. This action, delivered days after the models’ June 9 launch, reflects ongoing administration scrutiny of frontier AI capabilities and aligns with prior federal reviews of Anthropic’s supply-chain role. Anthropic has publicly contested the breadth of the order, stating it is engaging officials to address the concern and restore compliant access, while competitors continue unrestricted operations. Traders are watching for Commerce Department clarification, any Senate or executive follow-up on export rules, or legal challenges that could prompt swift rescission before broader diplomatic or industry effects solidify.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNEU
16. Juni 2026
15. Juni
6%
30. Juni
41%
$395 Vol.
15. Juni
$28 Vol.
6%
30. Juni
$388 Vol.
41%
On June 12, 2026, the US government directed Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 for foreign nationals, whether inside or outside the United States (see: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.
Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.
The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The US government’s June 12 export-control directive from the Commerce Department, issued under national security authorities and citing a reported jailbreak vulnerability in the newly released Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, immediately forced Anthropic to disable access worldwide rather than selectively for foreign nationals. This action, delivered days after the models’ June 9 launch, reflects ongoing administration scrutiny of frontier AI capabilities and aligns with prior federal reviews of Anthropic’s supply-chain role. Anthropic has publicly contested the breadth of the order, stating it is engaging officials to address the concern and restore compliant access, while competitors continue unrestricted operations. Traders are watching for Commerce Department clarification, any Senate or executive follow-up on export rules, or legal challenges that could prompt swift rescission before broader diplomatic or industry effects solidify.
On June 12, 2026, the US government directed Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 for foreign nationals, whether inside or outside the United States (see: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.
Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.
The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.
Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.
The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 13, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Volumen
$395Enddatum
1. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 13, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 12, 2026, the US government directed Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 for foreign nationals, whether inside or outside the United States (see: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.
Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.
The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The US government’s June 12 export-control directive from the Commerce Department, issued under national security authorities and citing a reported jailbreak vulnerability in the newly released Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, immediately forced Anthropic to disable access worldwide rather than selectively for foreign nationals. This action, delivered days after the models’ June 9 launch, reflects ongoing administration scrutiny of frontier AI capabilities and aligns with prior federal reviews of Anthropic’s supply-chain role. Anthropic has publicly contested the breadth of the order, stating it is engaging officials to address the concern and restore compliant access, while competitors continue unrestricted operations. Traders are watching for Commerce Department clarification, any Senate or executive follow-up on export rules, or legal challenges that could prompt swift rescission before broader diplomatic or industry effects solidify.
On June 12, 2026, the US government directed Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 for foreign nationals, whether inside or outside the United States (see: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.
Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.
The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.
Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.
The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$395Enddatum
1. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 13, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US government’s June 12 export-control directive from the Commerce Department, issued under national security authorities and citing a reported jailbreak vulnerability in the newly released Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, immediately forced Anthropic to disable access worldwide rather than selectively for foreign nationals. This action, delivered days after the models’ June 9 launch, reflects ongoing administration scrutiny of frontier AI capabilities and aligns with prior federal reviews of Anthropic’s supply-chain role. Anthropic has publicly contested the breadth of the order, stating it is engaging officials to address the concern and restore compliant access, while competitors continue unrestricted operations. Traders are watching for Commerce Department clarification, any Senate or executive follow-up on export rules, or legal challenges that could prompt swift rescission before broader diplomatic or industry effects solidify.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen