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icon for Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das KI-Modell Nr.1? (Stilsteuerung Ein)
Technik·AI

Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das KI-Modell Nr.1? (Stilsteuerung Ein)

icon for Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das KI-Modell Nr.1? (Stilsteuerung Ein)
Technik·AI

Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das KI-Modell Nr.1? (Stilsteuerung Ein)

Okt. 1

Nov. 1

Okt. 1

Nov. 1

Anthropic 86%

Google 6.7%

Meta 6.2%

OpenAI 3.0%

Polymarket

$21,793 Vol.

Anthropic 86%

Google 6.7%

Meta 6.2%

OpenAI 3.0%

Polymarket

$21,793 Vol.

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$13,184 Vol.

86%

icon for Google

Google

$554 Vol.

7%

icon for Meta

Meta

$493 Vol.

6%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$871 Vol.

3%

icon for Moonshot

Moonshot

$449 Vol.

1%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$418 Vol.

1%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$458 Vol.

1%

icon for Baidu

Baidu

$258 Vol.

1%

icon for ByteDance

ByteDance

$394 Vol.

1%

icon for MiniMax

MiniMax

$420 Vol.

1%

icon for Thinky

Thinky

$387 Vol.

1%

icon for Meituan

Meituan

$378 Vol.

1%

icon for Nvidia

Nvidia

$382 Vol.

1%

icon for Tencent

Tencent

$378 Vol.

1%

icon for Microsoft

Microsoft

$375 Vol.

1%

icon for StepFun

StepFun

$379 Vol.

<1%

icon for SpaceXAI

SpaceXAI

$339 Vol.

<1%

icon for Amazon

Amazon

$382 Vol.

<1%

icon for Xiaomi

Xiaomi

$514 Vol.

<1%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$399 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$383 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops independent leaderboards such as BenchLM with an 84.8 BenchAlign score, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra at 82.9 and other Claude variants, reflecting superior performance across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This edge, reinforced by the September 2026 release of Fable 5.1 and Opus 5, drives the 85% market-implied probability that an Anthropic model holds the #1 spot by end of October under style-controlled evaluation. OpenAI, Google, and Meta trail due to lower benchmark results and no recent frontier breakthroughs, while lower-probability Chinese labs face capability gaps. With roughly six weeks until resolution and limited expected releases, trader consensus favors Anthropic's sustained positioning unless a major competitor launch shifts the ranking.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$21,793
Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops independent leaderboards such as BenchLM with an 84.8 BenchAlign score, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra at 82.9 and other Claude variants, reflecting superior performance across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This edge, reinforced by the September 2026 release of Fable 5.1 and Opus 5, drives the 85% market-implied probability that an Anthropic model holds the #1 spot by end of October under style-controlled evaluation. OpenAI, Google, and Meta trail due to lower benchmark results and no recent frontier breakthroughs, while lower-probability Chinese labs face capability gaps. With roughly six weeks until resolution and limited expected releases, trader consensus favors Anthropic's sustained positioning unless a major competitor launch shifts the ranking.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$21,793
Enddatum
1. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

89%
icon for Wird Anthropic am Ende Oktober 2026 das beste Mathematik-KI-Modell haben?

Wird Anthropic am Ende Oktober 2026 das beste Mathematik-KI-Modell haben?

71%
Ja
icon for Wird Anthropic am Ende September 2026 das führende KI-Modell haben?

Wird Anthropic am Ende September 2026 das führende KI-Modell haben?

91%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das KI-Modell Nr.1? (Stilsteuerung Ein)" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 21 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Anthropic" mit 86%, gefolgt von „Google" mit 7%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 86¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 86% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das KI-Modell Nr.1? (Stilsteuerung Ein)" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $21.8K generiert, seit der Markt am Aug 12, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das KI-Modell Nr.1? (Stilsteuerung Ein)" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 21 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das KI-Modell Nr.1? (Stilsteuerung Ein)" ist „Anthropic" mit 86%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 86% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Google" mit 7%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das KI-Modell Nr.1? (Stilsteuerung Ein)" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.