Anthropic leads market-implied odds for the third-ranked AI model by end of June at 57.5 percent due to Claude Opus 4.7's April 2026 release, which delivered standout gains on coding and agentic benchmarks such as SWE-Bench Pro while maintaining competitive performance under style-controlled human preference evaluations like LMSYS Arena. Google sits at 29.5 percent on the strength of Gemini 3.1 Pro's multimodal and reasoning edges, yet trails slightly in recent frontier clusters. Alibaba's Qwen 3.6 variants, with strong open-weight coding results, support its 21.8 percent position, though higher-cost U.S. labs continue to set the pace. Traders appear to view the next six weeks as unlikely to produce major shifts absent unexpected releases, given the narrow gaps among top labs and the stabilizing effect of recent benchmark convergence.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 50%
Google 23%
Meta 15.6%
Meituan 7.6%
NEU
NEU
30. Juni 2026
Anthropic
54%
34%
Meta
16%
Meituan
8%
xAI
7%
OpenAI
5%
DeepSeek
5%
Amazon
4%
Mistral
3%
Alibaba
23%
Baidu
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
1%
Microsoft
8%
Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 50%
Google 23%
Meta 15.6%
Meituan 7.6%
NEU
NEU
30. Juni 2026
Anthropic
$309 Vol.
54%
$416 Vol.
34%
Meta
$126 Vol.
16%
Meituan
$179 Vol.
8%
xAI
$200 Vol.
7%
OpenAI
$250 Vol.
5%
DeepSeek
$186 Vol.
5%
Amazon
$186 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$186 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$186 Vol.
23%
Baidu
$188 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$126 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$126 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$186 Vol.
8%
Moonshot
$159 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads market-implied odds for the third-ranked AI model by end of June at 57.5 percent due to Claude Opus 4.7's April 2026 release, which delivered standout gains on coding and agentic benchmarks such as SWE-Bench Pro while maintaining competitive performance under style-controlled human preference evaluations like LMSYS Arena. Google sits at 29.5 percent on the strength of Gemini 3.1 Pro's multimodal and reasoning edges, yet trails slightly in recent frontier clusters. Alibaba's Qwen 3.6 variants, with strong open-weight coding results, support its 21.8 percent position, though higher-cost U.S. labs continue to set the pace. Traders appear to view the next six weeks as unlikely to produce major shifts absent unexpected releases, given the narrow gaps among top labs and the stabilizing effect of recent benchmark convergence.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volumen
$3,009Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads market-implied odds for the third-ranked AI model by end of June at 57.5 percent due to Claude Opus 4.7's April 2026 release, which delivered standout gains on coding and agentic benchmarks such as SWE-Bench Pro while maintaining competitive performance under style-controlled human preference evaluations like LMSYS Arena. Google sits at 29.5 percent on the strength of Gemini 3.1 Pro's multimodal and reasoning edges, yet trails slightly in recent frontier clusters. Alibaba's Qwen 3.6 variants, with strong open-weight coding results, support its 21.8 percent position, though higher-cost U.S. labs continue to set the pace. Traders appear to view the next six weeks as unlikely to produce major shifts absent unexpected releases, given the narrow gaps among top labs and the stabilizing effect of recent benchmark convergence.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$3,009Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads market-implied odds for the third-ranked AI model by end of June at 57.5 percent due to Claude Opus 4.7's April 2026 release, which delivered standout gains on coding and agentic benchmarks such as SWE-Bench Pro while maintaining competitive performance under style-controlled human preference evaluations like LMSYS Arena. Google sits at 29.5 percent on the strength of Gemini 3.1 Pro's multimodal and reasoning edges, yet trails slightly in recent frontier clusters. Alibaba's Qwen 3.6 variants, with strong open-weight coding results, support its 21.8 percent position, though higher-cost U.S. labs continue to set the pace. Traders appear to view the next six weeks as unlikely to produce major shifts absent unexpected releases, given the narrow gaps among top labs and the stabilizing effect of recent benchmark convergence.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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