Anthropic holds a commanding 66.5% implied probability on the LiveBench Coding market for end of October because its recent Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 series have delivered leading or near-leading scores on the benchmark’s coding tasks, including 89.7–91.2% ranges in max-effort configurations from the June 2026 release. Traders cite the company’s consistent focus on agentic coding, long-context handling, and iterative releases that outperform or match OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants on LiveBench’s objective, contamination-resistant tasks while dominating related metrics such as SWE-bench Verified. OpenAI trails at 29.5% amid strong but slightly less consistent results across the full LiveBench suite, with other labs well behind. Key near-term catalysts include any September or October model updates and the next LiveBench refresh, which could shift standings before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 64%
OpenAI 30%
Mistral 2.1%
Google 2.0%
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
Anthropic
64%
OpenAI
30%
Mistral
2%
2%
DeepSeek
2%
Meta
1%
Baidu
1%
Amazon
1%
Nvidia
1%
Thinky
1%
MiniMax
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 64%
OpenAI 30%
Mistral 2.1%
Google 2.0%
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
Anthropic
$2,833 Vol.
64%
OpenAI
$485 Vol.
30%
Mistral
$165 Vol.
2%
$138 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$113 Vol.
2%
Meta
$160 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$144 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$174 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$179 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$179 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$164 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$182 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$113 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$133 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$186 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$138 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$151 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$146 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$133 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$133 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$153 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds a commanding 66.5% implied probability on the LiveBench Coding market for end of October because its recent Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 series have delivered leading or near-leading scores on the benchmark’s coding tasks, including 89.7–91.2% ranges in max-effort configurations from the June 2026 release. Traders cite the company’s consistent focus on agentic coding, long-context handling, and iterative releases that outperform or match OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants on LiveBench’s objective, contamination-resistant tasks while dominating related metrics such as SWE-bench Verified. OpenAI trails at 29.5% amid strong but slightly less consistent results across the full LiveBench suite, with other labs well behind. Key near-term catalysts include any September or October model updates and the next LiveBench refresh, which could shift standings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volumen
$5,729Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds a commanding 66.5% implied probability on the LiveBench Coding market for end of October because its recent Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 series have delivered leading or near-leading scores on the benchmark’s coding tasks, including 89.7–91.2% ranges in max-effort configurations from the June 2026 release. Traders cite the company’s consistent focus on agentic coding, long-context handling, and iterative releases that outperform or match OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants on LiveBench’s objective, contamination-resistant tasks while dominating related metrics such as SWE-bench Verified. OpenAI trails at 29.5% amid strong but slightly less consistent results across the full LiveBench suite, with other labs well behind. Key near-term catalysts include any September or October model updates and the next LiveBench refresh, which could shift standings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volumen
$5,729Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a commanding 66.5% implied probability on the LiveBench Coding market for end of October because its recent Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 series have delivered leading or near-leading scores on the benchmark’s coding tasks, including 89.7–91.2% ranges in max-effort configurations from the June 2026 release. Traders cite the company’s consistent focus on agentic coding, long-context handling, and iterative releases that outperform or match OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants on LiveBench’s objective, contamination-resistant tasks while dominating related metrics such as SWE-bench Verified. OpenAI trails at 29.5% amid strong but slightly less consistent results across the full LiveBench suite, with other labs well behind. Key near-term catalysts include any September or October model updates and the next LiveBench refresh, which could shift standings before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen