OpenAI holds a narrow edge in trader consensus at 51.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench Mathematics score by end of October 2026, reflecting recent GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants posting leading or near-leading results on the benchmark's objective math tasks, including strong performance in reasoning-heavy subtasks. Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 models remain highly competitive with comparable or superior overall scores but slightly trail in the specific mathematics category, underscoring the tight frontier race where small capability gains or evaluation refreshes can shift standings. Multiple unnamed labs sit at even odds around 50%, highlighting how undisclosed training advances, post-training optimizations, or new releases before the October cutoff could alter outcomes amid rapid iteration cycles typical of large language model development.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWelches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das beste KI-Modell auf LiveBench (Mathematik)?
Welches Unternehmen hat Ende Oktober das beste KI-Modell auf LiveBench (Mathematik)?
OpenAI 52%
Anthropic 48%
Meta <1%
Google <1%
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
OpenAI
52%
Anthropic
48%
Meta
1%
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Microsoft
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Amazon
1%
ByteDance
1%
Thinky
1%
MiniMax
1%
StepFun
1%
Alibaba
1%
Mistral
1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
OpenAI 52%
Anthropic 48%
Meta <1%
Google <1%
NEU
NEU
31. Okt. 2026
OpenAI
$1,163 Vol.
52%
Anthropic
$1,708 Vol.
48%
Meta
$341 Vol.
1%
$344 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$317 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$325 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$310 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$326 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$285 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$285 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$285 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$290 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$285 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$305 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$210 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$290 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$450 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$210 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$250 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$210 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$210 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”OpenAI holds a narrow edge in trader consensus at 51.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench Mathematics score by end of October 2026, reflecting recent GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants posting leading or near-leading results on the benchmark's objective math tasks, including strong performance in reasoning-heavy subtasks. Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 models remain highly competitive with comparable or superior overall scores but slightly trail in the specific mathematics category, underscoring the tight frontier race where small capability gains or evaluation refreshes can shift standings. Multiple unnamed labs sit at even odds around 50%, highlighting how undisclosed training advances, post-training optimizations, or new releases before the October cutoff could alter outcomes amid rapid iteration cycles typical of large language model development.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volumen
$8,399Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”OpenAI holds a narrow edge in trader consensus at 51.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench Mathematics score by end of October 2026, reflecting recent GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants posting leading or near-leading results on the benchmark's objective math tasks, including strong performance in reasoning-heavy subtasks. Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 models remain highly competitive with comparable or superior overall scores but slightly trail in the specific mathematics category, underscoring the tight frontier race where small capability gains or evaluation refreshes can shift standings. Multiple unnamed labs sit at even odds around 50%, highlighting how undisclosed training advances, post-training optimizations, or new releases before the October cutoff could alter outcomes amid rapid iteration cycles typical of large language model development.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volumen
$8,399Enddatum
31. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI holds a narrow edge in trader consensus at 51.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench Mathematics score by end of October 2026, reflecting recent GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants posting leading or near-leading results on the benchmark's objective math tasks, including strong performance in reasoning-heavy subtasks. Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 models remain highly competitive with comparable or superior overall scores but slightly trail in the specific mathematics category, underscoring the tight frontier race where small capability gains or evaluation refreshes can shift standings. Multiple unnamed labs sit at even odds around 50%, highlighting how undisclosed training advances, post-training optimizations, or new releases before the October cutoff could alter outcomes amid rapid iteration cycles typical of large language model development.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen