Anthropic holds a commanding lead in trader sentiment for the best math AI model by end of May, driven by its latest Claude releases posting top scores on key benchmarks such as MATH-500 and AIME 2025 competition problems. These gains stem from targeted improvements in multi-step reasoning chains and extended thinking modes, which have widened its edge over Google’s Gemini 3 Pro and OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants in recent evaluations. Traders are also weighing ongoing frontier model updates, with Anthropic’s consistent outperformance in olympiad-level math tasks reinforcing the current implied odds. Upcoming benchmark releases or new model drops from competitors could still shift positioning before the May resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 71%
Google 16%
OpenAI 12%
xAI <1%
$120,915 Vol.
$120,915 Vol.

Anthropic
71%

16%

OpenAI
12%

xAI
1%

ByteDance
1%

Z.ai
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Meta
1%

Baidu
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 71%
Google 16%
OpenAI 12%
xAI <1%
$120,915 Vol.
$120,915 Vol.

Anthropic
71%

16%

OpenAI
12%

xAI
1%

ByteDance
1%

Z.ai
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Meta
1%

Baidu
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a commanding lead in trader sentiment for the best math AI model by end of May, driven by its latest Claude releases posting top scores on key benchmarks such as MATH-500 and AIME 2025 competition problems. These gains stem from targeted improvements in multi-step reasoning chains and extended thinking modes, which have widened its edge over Google’s Gemini 3 Pro and OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants in recent evaluations. Traders are also weighing ongoing frontier model updates, with Anthropic’s consistent outperformance in olympiad-level math tasks reinforcing the current implied odds. Upcoming benchmark releases or new model drops from competitors could still shift positioning before the May resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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