This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Lebanese government efforts to establish a state monopoly on arms have advanced through army-led phases targeting Hezbollah positions south of the Litani River, with the first stage declared complete in early 2026 and monthly progress reports to the cabinet. These steps align with UN resolutions 1559 and 1701 and follow a June 2026 U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon framework agreement that conditions full Israeli withdrawal and extended ceasefires on verified disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment. Hezbollah has rejected the plans outright, labeling them illegitimate and continuing rearmament activities, while Israeli officials describe progress as encouraging yet insufficient. U.S. diplomatic support and Lebanese army capacity constraints remain key variables, alongside ongoing border tensions and the group's regional alliances. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched positions and implementation hurdles ahead of near-term deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Lebanese government efforts to establish a state monopoly on arms have advanced through army-led phases targeting Hezbollah positions south of the Litani River, with the first stage declared complete in early 2026 and monthly progress reports to the cabinet. These steps align with UN resolutions 1559 and 1701 and follow a June 2026 U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon framework agreement that conditions full Israeli withdrawal and extended ceasefires on verified disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment. Hezbollah has rejected the plans outright, labeling them illegitimate and continuing rearmament activities, while Israeli officials describe progress as encouraging yet insufficient. U.S. diplomatic support and Lebanese army capacity constraints remain key variables, alongside ongoing border tensions and the group's regional alliances. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched positions and implementation hurdles ahead of near-term deadlines.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Apr 25 2026
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a
April 30 rises to 4%4%
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a brief rally to 4 % before the
Apr 23 2026
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to
April 30 dips to 0%4%
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to slide back to 0 %
Apr 20 2026
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the
April 30 rises to 4%2%
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the militia’s refusal to lay down arms
Apr 20 2026
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declares the government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah “irreversible,” but Qassem counters that Hezbollah’s fighters will keep “hands on the
April 30 dips to 0%1%
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declares the government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah “irreversible,” but Qassem counters that Hezbollah’s fighters will keep “hands on the trigger,” underscoring continued resistance
Apr 19 2026
Qassem sets cease‑fire terms and warns that any truce must be mutual;
December 31 drops to 21%11%
he repeats that Hezbollah will keep its weapons until Israel fully withdraws, dampening hopes of a disarmament announcement
Apr 9 2026
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept
April 30 dips to 3%2%
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept any concessions
Apr 9 2026
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal
April 30 dips to 1%4%
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal to lay down arms
Mar 2 2026
In a televised address Qassem announces a “framework” that begins only after Israel ends all aggression, implying no immediate disarmament – traders interpret the lack of
December 31 plunges to 38%18%
In a televised address Qassem announces a “framework” that begins only after Israel ends all aggression, implying no immediate disarmament – traders interpret the lack of concession as a negative signal
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Lebanese government efforts to establish a state monopoly on arms have advanced through army-led phases targeting Hezbollah positions south of the Litani River, with the first stage declared complete in early 2026 and monthly progress reports to the cabinet. These steps align with UN resolutions 1559 and 1701 and follow a June 2026 U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon framework agreement that conditions full Israeli withdrawal and extended ceasefires on verified disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment. Hezbollah has rejected the plans outright, labeling them illegitimate and continuing rearmament activities, while Israeli officials describe progress as encouraging yet insufficient. U.S. diplomatic support and Lebanese army capacity constraints remain key variables, alongside ongoing border tensions and the group's regional alliances. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched positions and implementation hurdles ahead of near-term deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Lebanese government efforts to establish a state monopoly on arms have advanced through army-led phases targeting Hezbollah positions south of the Litani River, with the first stage declared complete in early 2026 and monthly progress reports to the cabinet. These steps align with UN resolutions 1559 and 1701 and follow a June 2026 U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon framework agreement that conditions full Israeli withdrawal and extended ceasefires on verified disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment. Hezbollah has rejected the plans outright, labeling them illegitimate and continuing rearmament activities, while Israeli officials describe progress as encouraging yet insufficient. U.S. diplomatic support and Lebanese army capacity constraints remain key variables, alongside ongoing border tensions and the group's regional alliances. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched positions and implementation hurdles ahead of near-term deadlines.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Apr 25 2026
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a
April 30 rises to 4%4%
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a brief rally to 4 % before the
Apr 23 2026
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to
April 30 dips to 0%4%
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to slide back to 0 %
Apr 20 2026
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the
April 30 rises to 4%2%
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the militia’s refusal to lay down arms
Apr 20 2026
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declares the government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah “irreversible,” but Qassem counters that Hezbollah’s fighters will keep “hands on the
April 30 dips to 0%1%
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declares the government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah “irreversible,” but Qassem counters that Hezbollah’s fighters will keep “hands on the trigger,” underscoring continued resistance
Apr 19 2026
Qassem sets cease‑fire terms and warns that any truce must be mutual;
December 31 drops to 21%11%
he repeats that Hezbollah will keep its weapons until Israel fully withdraws, dampening hopes of a disarmament announcement
Apr 9 2026
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept
April 30 dips to 3%2%
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept any concessions
Apr 9 2026
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal
April 30 dips to 1%4%
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal to lay down arms
Mar 2 2026
In a televised address Qassem announces a “framework” that begins only after Israel ends all aggression, implying no immediate disarmament – traders interpret the lack of
December 31 plunges to 38%18%
In a televised address Qassem announces a “framework” that begins only after Israel ends all aggression, implying no immediate disarmament – traders interpret the lack of concession as a negative signal
„Wird die Hisbollah bis... entwaffnen?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 3 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „31. Dezember" mit 11%, gefolgt von „31. März" mit 0%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 11¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 11% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.
Stand heute hat „Wird die Hisbollah bis... entwaffnen?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $3.1 million generiert, seit der Markt am Nov 5, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.
Um auf „Wird die Hisbollah bis... entwaffnen?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 3 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.
Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wird die Hisbollah bis... entwaffnen?" ist „31. Dezember" mit 11%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 11% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „31. März" mit 0%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.
Die Auflösungsregeln für „Wird die Hisbollah bis... entwaffnen?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.
Ja. Sie müssen nicht handeln, um informiert zu bleiben. Diese Seite dient als Live-Tracker für „Wird die Hisbollah bis... entwaffnen?". Die Ergebniswahrscheinlichkeiten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn neue Handelsgeschäfte eingehen. Sie können diese Seite als Lesezeichen speichern und den Kommentarbereich lesen, um zu sehen, was andere Händler sagen. Sie können auch die Zeitfilter im Diagramm nutzen, um zu sehen, wie sich die Quoten im Laufe der Zeit verändert haben.
Polymarket-Quoten werden von echten Händlern festgelegt, die echtes Geld hinter ihre Überzeugungen setzen, was tendenziell genaue Vorhersagen hervorbringt. Mit $3.1 million Handelsvolumen bei “Wird die Hisbollah bis... entwaffnen?” aggregieren diese Preise das kollektive Wissen und die Überzeugung Tausender Teilnehmer — oft genauer als Umfragen, Expertenprognosen und traditionelle Erhebungen. Prognosemärkte wie Polymarket haben eine starke Erfolgsbilanz bei der Genauigkeit, besonders wenn Ereignisse sich ihrem Auflösungsdatum nähern. Beispielsweise hat Polymarket einen Einmonats-Genauigkeitswert von 94%. Für die neuesten Statistiken zur Vorhersagegenauigkeit von Polymarket besuchen Sie die Genauigkeitsseite auf Polymarket.
Um Ihren ersten Handel auf „Wird die Hisbollah bis... entwaffnen?" zu platzieren, erstellen Sie ein kostenloses Polymarket-Konto und laden Sie es mit Krypto, Kredit- oder Debitkarte oder Banküberweisung auf. Sobald Ihr Konto aufgeladen ist, kehren Sie zu dieser Seite zurück, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, auf das Sie handeln möchten, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie neu bei Prognosemärkten sind, klicken Sie auf den Link „So funktioniert es" oben auf jeder Polymarket-Seite für eine Schritt-für-Schritt-Anleitung.
Auf Polymarket repräsentiert der Preis jedes Ergebnisses die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes. Ein Preis von 11¢ für „31. Dezember" im Markt „Wird die Hisbollah bis... entwaffnen?" bedeutet, dass Händler kollektiv eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von etwa 11% sehen, dass „31. Dezember" das korrekte Ergebnis sein wird. Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile bei 11¢ kaufen und das Ergebnis korrekt ist, erhalten Sie $1,00 pro Anteil – ein Gewinn von 89¢ pro Anteil. Ist es falsch, sind diese Anteile $0 wert.
Der Markt „Wird die Hisbollah bis... entwaffnen?" ist geplant, um am oder um den Dec 30, 2026 aufgelöst zu werden. Das bedeutet, dass der Handel offen bleibt und die Quoten sich weiter verschieben, bis dieses Datum erreicht ist. Der genaue Auflösungszeitpunkt hängt davon ab, wann das offizielle Ergebnis verfügbar ist, wie im Abschnitt „Regeln" beschrieben.
Der Markt „Wird die Hisbollah bis... entwaffnen?" hat eine aktive Community mit 204 Kommentaren, in der Händler ihre Analysen teilen, Ergebnisse diskutieren und aktuelle Entwicklungen besprechen. Scrollen Sie zum Kommentarbereich unten, um zu lesen, was andere Teilnehmer denken. Sie können auch nach „Top-Haltern" filtern oder den Tab „Aktivität" für einen Echtzeit-Feed von Handelsgeschäften prüfen.
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