Tesla's recent Q2 2026 shareholder letter removed prior targets for volume Cybercab production this year, citing manufacturing line build-out, 4680 battery scaling needs, and $25 billion in planned capex, while first test units began limited output at Giga Texas earlier in 2026. These delays, alongside ongoing Full Self-Driving software maturation and regulatory hurdles for unsupervised robotaxi operations, have reinforced trader skepticism that meaningful customer sales at or below $30,000 will occur before year-end. Initial 2024 announcements targeted sub-$30k pricing with 2026 availability, yet current timelines point toward limited early builds rather than scaled commercial deliveries, keeping "No" odds elevated at 86%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
15% Chance
$48,046 Vol.
$48,046 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
15% Chance
$48,046 Vol.
$48,046 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's recent Q2 2026 shareholder letter removed prior targets for volume Cybercab production this year, citing manufacturing line build-out, 4680 battery scaling needs, and $25 billion in planned capex, while first test units began limited output at Giga Texas earlier in 2026. These delays, alongside ongoing Full Self-Driving software maturation and regulatory hurdles for unsupervised robotaxi operations, have reinforced trader skepticism that meaningful customer sales at or below $30,000 will occur before year-end. Initial 2024 announcements targeted sub-$30k pricing with 2026 availability, yet current timelines point toward limited early builds rather than scaled commercial deliveries, keeping "No" odds elevated at 86%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volumen
$48,046Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's recent Q2 2026 shareholder letter removed prior targets for volume Cybercab production this year, citing manufacturing line build-out, 4680 battery scaling needs, and $25 billion in planned capex, while first test units began limited output at Giga Texas earlier in 2026. These delays, alongside ongoing Full Self-Driving software maturation and regulatory hurdles for unsupervised robotaxi operations, have reinforced trader skepticism that meaningful customer sales at or below $30,000 will occur before year-end. Initial 2024 announcements targeted sub-$30k pricing with 2026 availability, yet current timelines point toward limited early builds rather than scaled commercial deliveries, keeping "No" odds elevated at 86%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$48,046Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's recent Q2 2026 shareholder letter removed prior targets for volume Cybercab production this year, citing manufacturing line build-out, 4680 battery scaling needs, and $25 billion in planned capex, while first test units began limited output at Giga Texas earlier in 2026. These delays, alongside ongoing Full Self-Driving software maturation and regulatory hurdles for unsupervised robotaxi operations, have reinforced trader skepticism that meaningful customer sales at or below $30,000 will occur before year-end. Initial 2024 announcements targeted sub-$30k pricing with 2026 availability, yet current timelines point toward limited early builds rather than scaled commercial deliveries, keeping "No" odds elevated at 86%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen