Persistent delays in Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro large language model drive the market's 32.5% probability of no release by September 30, reflecting repeated slips from the May 2026 I/O promise of a June rollout. Internal performance shortfalls, confirmed in July reporting, have kept the flagship in testing while lighter variants like 3.5 Flash shipped on July 21; the current production model remains 3.1 Pro. With no confirmed timeline or upcoming developer events, traders price dispersed September dates at 7-11.5% each to capture the wide uncertainty around when Google might meet its agentic and coding benchmarks for a Pro-tier release.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeine Veröffentlichung bis zum 30. September 32%
9. September 20%
22. September 11%
24. September 11%
Am oder vor dem 1. September
1%
2. September
11%
3. September
7%
4. September
10%
5. September
11%
6. September
9%
7. September
11%
8. September
10%
9. September
20%
10. September
1%
11. September
10%
12. September
11%
13. September
1%
14. September
10%
15. September
10%
16. September
10%
17. September
9%
18. September
8%
19. September
8%
20. September
11%
21. September
10%
22. September
11%
23. September
9%
24. September
11%
25. September
9%
26. September
7%
27. September
9%
28. September
10%
29. September
10%
30. September
11%
Keine Veröffentlichung bis zum 30. September
32%
Keine Veröffentlichung bis zum 30. September 32%
9. September 20%
22. September 11%
24. September 11%
Am oder vor dem 1. September
1%
2. September
11%
3. September
7%
4. September
10%
5. September
11%
6. September
9%
7. September
11%
8. September
10%
9. September
20%
10. September
1%
11. September
10%
12. September
11%
13. September
1%
14. September
10%
15. September
10%
16. September
10%
17. September
9%
18. September
8%
19. September
8%
20. September
11%
21. September
10%
22. September
11%
23. September
9%
24. September
11%
25. September
9%
26. September
7%
27. September
9%
28. September
10%
29. September
10%
30. September
11%
Keine Veröffentlichung bis zum 30. September
32%
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent delays in Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro large language model drive the market's 32.5% probability of no release by September 30, reflecting repeated slips from the May 2026 I/O promise of a June rollout. Internal performance shortfalls, confirmed in July reporting, have kept the flagship in testing while lighter variants like 3.5 Flash shipped on July 21; the current production model remains 3.1 Pro. With no confirmed timeline or upcoming developer events, traders price dispersed September dates at 7-11.5% each to capture the wide uncertainty around when Google might meet its agentic and coding benchmarks for a Pro-tier release.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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