The 94.5% implied probability on "No" for the fastest World Cup goal record being broken reflects the extreme rarity of scoring within the first 10-15 seconds of a match. The current benchmark stands at 11 seconds from 2002, and recent tournaments have produced no comparably rapid strikes despite expanded schedules and attacking styles. Kickoff setups typically emphasize possession and structure rather than immediate long-range attempts, while defensive organization and goalkeepers limit early opportunities. Historical patterns across prior World Cups show goals in the opening minute occur in well under 5% of games, underscoring why traders view a record-breaking outcome as a low-probability outlier even across the full 2026 slate.