Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability that Elon Musk will not secure a $10 billion-plus settlement from Sam Altman or OpenAI because the ongoing federal trial in Oakland centers on breach-of-charitable-trust claims rather than a straightforward damages award. Recent testimony and closing arguments have highlighted disputed founding agreements from 2015–2018, with Musk’s side pushing for up to $150 billion in restitution to the nonprofit entity plus leadership changes, yet OpenAI’s defense has emphasized recusal practices and for-profit restructuring completed in early 2025. An advisory jury is now deliberating, but precedent in similar nonprofit-conversion cases shows limited success for such outsized monetary remedies. Potential catalysts include a judge’s post-verdict rulings on remedies or any last-minute negotiated resolution, though both sides have shown little appetite for compromise.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$79,784 Vol.
$79,784 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$79,784 Vol.
$79,784 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability that Elon Musk will not secure a $10 billion-plus settlement from Sam Altman or OpenAI because the ongoing federal trial in Oakland centers on breach-of-charitable-trust claims rather than a straightforward damages award. Recent testimony and closing arguments have highlighted disputed founding agreements from 2015–2018, with Musk’s side pushing for up to $150 billion in restitution to the nonprofit entity plus leadership changes, yet OpenAI’s defense has emphasized recusal practices and for-profit restructuring completed in early 2025. An advisory jury is now deliberating, but precedent in similar nonprofit-conversion cases shows limited success for such outsized monetary remedies. Potential catalysts include a judge’s post-verdict rulings on remedies or any last-minute negotiated resolution, though both sides have shown little appetite for compromise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volumen
$79,784Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability that Elon Musk will not secure a $10 billion-plus settlement from Sam Altman or OpenAI because the ongoing federal trial in Oakland centers on breach-of-charitable-trust claims rather than a straightforward damages award. Recent testimony and closing arguments have highlighted disputed founding agreements from 2015–2018, with Musk’s side pushing for up to $150 billion in restitution to the nonprofit entity plus leadership changes, yet OpenAI’s defense has emphasized recusal practices and for-profit restructuring completed in early 2025. An advisory jury is now deliberating, but precedent in similar nonprofit-conversion cases shows limited success for such outsized monetary remedies. Potential catalysts include a judge’s post-verdict rulings on remedies or any last-minute negotiated resolution, though both sides have shown little appetite for compromise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$79,784Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability that Elon Musk will not secure a $10 billion-plus settlement from Sam Altman or OpenAI because the ongoing federal trial in Oakland centers on breach-of-charitable-trust claims rather than a straightforward damages award. Recent testimony and closing arguments have highlighted disputed founding agreements from 2015–2018, with Musk’s side pushing for up to $150 billion in restitution to the nonprofit entity plus leadership changes, yet OpenAI’s defense has emphasized recusal practices and for-profit restructuring completed in early 2025. An advisory jury is now deliberating, but precedent in similar nonprofit-conversion cases shows limited success for such outsized monetary remedies. Potential catalysts include a judge’s post-verdict rulings on remedies or any last-minute negotiated resolution, though both sides have shown little appetite for compromise.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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