Persistent inflation readings and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions have become the dominant drivers shifting trader sentiment toward a possible Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. With the target range held at 3.50%-3.75% after the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, CME FedWatch Tool now assigns roughly 45% implied probability to at least one 25-basis-point increase this year, up sharply from 1% a month earlier. Strong labor-market data and core PCE readings near 3.2% have tempered earlier cut expectations while highlighting upside inflation risks. The next key catalyst arrives at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, followed by May CPI and PCE releases that could further adjust market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$148,654 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Reunión de junio
1%
Reunión de julio
6%
Reunión de septiembre
16%
Reunión de octubre
28%
$148,654 Vol.
Reunión de junio
$14,700 Vol.
1%
Reunión de julio
$1,008 Vol.
6%
Reunión de septiembre
$161 Vol.
16%
Reunión de octubre
$1,477 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation readings and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions have become the dominant drivers shifting trader sentiment toward a possible Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. With the target range held at 3.50%-3.75% after the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, CME FedWatch Tool now assigns roughly 45% implied probability to at least one 25-basis-point increase this year, up sharply from 1% a month earlier. Strong labor-market data and core PCE readings near 3.2% have tempered earlier cut expectations while highlighting upside inflation risks. The next key catalyst arrives at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, followed by May CPI and PCE releases that could further adjust market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$148,654Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation readings and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions have become the dominant drivers shifting trader sentiment toward a possible Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. With the target range held at 3.50%-3.75% after the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, CME FedWatch Tool now assigns roughly 45% implied probability to at least one 25-basis-point increase this year, up sharply from 1% a month earlier. Strong labor-market data and core PCE readings near 3.2% have tempered earlier cut expectations while highlighting upside inflation risks. The next key catalyst arrives at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, followed by May CPI and PCE releases that could further adjust market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$148,654Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation readings and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions have become the dominant drivers shifting trader sentiment toward a possible Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. With the target range held at 3.50%-3.75% after the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, CME FedWatch Tool now assigns roughly 45% implied probability to at least one 25-basis-point increase this year, up sharply from 1% a month earlier. Strong labor-market data and core PCE readings near 3.2% have tempered earlier cut expectations while highlighting upside inflation risks. The next key catalyst arrives at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, followed by May CPI and PCE releases that could further adjust market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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