The closely contested Greater Manchester mayoral by-election on 30 July features Restore Britain candidate Marlon West, whose selection in late June highlights grooming gangs and child exploitation concerns as a potential voter draw. This new party, formed after Rupert Lowe's split from Reform UK, risks dividing the right-wing vote in a supplementary voting system where first-preference thresholds matter. Recent local results show Reform UK performing strongly in some areas while Restore Britain polled weakly elsewhere, creating trader uncertainty over whether West can clear 10 percent amid Labour's frontrunner Bev Craig, rising Green support, and multiple other candidates. Short campaign timelines, voter turnout patterns, and any late shifts in right-wing consolidation could tip first-preference shares either direction before polls close.