CIA Director John Ratcliffe's visit to Havana on May 15 amid Cuba's fuel reserves hitting zero highlights intensified US diplomatic pressure under the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign, following a May 1 executive order expanding sanctions on regime military enterprises like GAESA. April backchannel talks offered sanctions relief, Starlink access, and $100 million aid in exchange for political prisoner releases, compensation for seized US properties, economic reforms, and reduced Russian-Chinese intelligence presence, with Cuba confirming discussions but rejecting preconditions. Trader consensus implies 39% odds of a qualifying publicly announced mutual agreement on trade, tariffs, sanctions, or embargo easing by June 30, tempered by stalled progress, no scheduled summits, and congressional barriers to normalization.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Acuerdo económico EEUU x Cuba por...?
¿Acuerdo económico EEUU x Cuba por...?
$233,296 Vol.
30 jun 2026
30 de junio
36%
$233,296 Vol.
30 de junio
$97,297 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.CIA Director John Ratcliffe's visit to Havana on May 15 amid Cuba's fuel reserves hitting zero highlights intensified US diplomatic pressure under the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign, following a May 1 executive order expanding sanctions on regime military enterprises like GAESA. April backchannel talks offered sanctions relief, Starlink access, and $100 million aid in exchange for political prisoner releases, compensation for seized US properties, economic reforms, and reduced Russian-Chinese intelligence presence, with Cuba confirming discussions but rejecting preconditions. Trader consensus implies 39% odds of a qualifying publicly announced mutual agreement on trade, tariffs, sanctions, or embargo easing by June 30, tempered by stalled progress, no scheduled summits, and congressional barriers to normalization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: Mar 13, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volumen
$233,296Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 13, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.CIA Director John Ratcliffe's visit to Havana on May 15 amid Cuba's fuel reserves hitting zero highlights intensified US diplomatic pressure under the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign, following a May 1 executive order expanding sanctions on regime military enterprises like GAESA. April backchannel talks offered sanctions relief, Starlink access, and $100 million aid in exchange for political prisoner releases, compensation for seized US properties, economic reforms, and reduced Russian-Chinese intelligence presence, with Cuba confirming discussions but rejecting preconditions. Trader consensus implies 39% odds of a qualifying publicly announced mutual agreement on trade, tariffs, sanctions, or embargo easing by June 30, tempered by stalled progress, no scheduled summits, and congressional barriers to normalization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$233,296Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 13, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...CIA Director John Ratcliffe's visit to Havana on May 15 amid Cuba's fuel reserves hitting zero highlights intensified US diplomatic pressure under the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign, following a May 1 executive order expanding sanctions on regime military enterprises like GAESA. April backchannel talks offered sanctions relief, Starlink access, and $100 million aid in exchange for political prisoner releases, compensation for seized US properties, economic reforms, and reduced Russian-Chinese intelligence presence, with Cuba confirming discussions but rejecting preconditions. Trader consensus implies 39% odds of a qualifying publicly announced mutual agreement on trade, tariffs, sanctions, or embargo easing by June 30, tempered by stalled progress, no scheduled summits, and congressional barriers to normalization.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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